莫桑比克海峡热带气旋第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，或在海峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 170044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 465 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 415 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

48H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130

60H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150

72H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 42.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 535 SW: 465 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 48.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 555 SW: 500 NW: 595
34 KT NE: 465 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 350
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

GEZANI'S CENTER PASSED ABOUT 45 KM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) ON MONDAY EVENING AROUND 18-19UTC. THE
18Z POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AT 25.3S/43.8E IN THE BEST TRACK.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. ITS CLOUD PATTERN TEMPORARILY EVOLVED INTO A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AT LEAST 0.75 ROUND. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MAINLY
BASED ON THE MET/PT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT, IN LINE
WITH MONDAY EVENING'S ASCAT DATA AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CIMSS
OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE INTENSITY SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING.

GEZANI'S TRACK IS NOW TURNING SOUTHWARD AND MOVING FASTER ALONG THE
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY WHILE MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
SPREAD WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE IS LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, THUS MAKING WIND SHEAR DECREASE. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN
INTENSITY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKENING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, REACHING STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS NEAR
KERGUELEN ARCHIPELAGO ON SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM NOW ON.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY TODAY IN THE LEE OF GEZANI.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METERS THIS TUESDAY EARLY
MORNING, THEN QUICKLY DECREASING BELOW 4 METERS.

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 17 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 2月17日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬26.6度，东经44.5度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 987百帕

参考位置: 距离马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西南方向约310公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由12级减弱为10级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度维持或缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月17日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 170742 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 44.0 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 28 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 70 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 445 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 510 SW: 480 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 110

36H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 120

48H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.3 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 150

60H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 405 SW: 435 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205

72H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 45.0 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 640 SW: 425 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 280

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SLID BELOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, ACCELERATING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
ACITIVITY DOES NOT SHOW CLEAR REVIVAL. THE CURVED BAND PATTERN NOW
APPEARS CLEAR, ALLOWING US TO MAKE A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.0 IN DT.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF BAROCLINE MECHANISMS INDICATES THAT GEZANI
IS NOW HYBRID IN NATURE, AND WE PREFER A MET/PT ANALYSIS OF 2.5. THE
CI IS THEREFORE FALLING TO 3.5, INDICATING A MAXIMUM SPEED OF 50KT
AND THE SYSTEM REMAINING AT THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONFIRMED BY THE ASCAT-B SWATH AROUND 0530UTC.

GEZANI'S TRACK IS HEADING SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, ACCELERATING ALONG
THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND ON THE NEAR
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CUT-OFF. GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SOUTHERLY
TRACK BY THURSDAY AND THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST, MOVING AWAY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, THUS MAKING WIND SHEAR DECREASE. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN
INTENSITY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKENING OVER WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, REACHING STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS NEAR
KERGUELEN ARCHIPELAGO ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALL PARAMETERS.

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 020   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 29.6S 43.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.6S 43.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 33.2S 42.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 35.6S 41.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 30.5S 43.5E. 17FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 170900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING
   
4. NR 020//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 29.6S 43.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 30 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID VORTEX DECOUPLING AS IT
    
18. INTERACTED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    
19. SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY DECOUPLED AND INCREASINGLY
    
20. ELONGATED LLCC ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, INTEGRATING WITH A
    
21. BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL
    
22. MODEL FIELDS REVEAL A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL, COLD-CORE LOW JUST
    
23. SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 170545Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED A
    
24. SMALL INNER-CORE OF LIGHT WINDS, SURROUNDED BY A BROAD GALE-FORCE WIND
    
25. REGION, WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS IN THE
    
26. SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 170336Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
    
27. SYSTEM IS ACQUIRING ASYMMETRIC BAROCLINIC FEATURES, WITH A WEAK
    
28. FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND A FRONTOGENETIC RAIN SHIELD
    
29. TO THE SOUTHWEST, VALIDATING THE TRANSITION TO A HYBRID THERMAL
    
30. STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
31. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS NOTED ABOVE.
    
32. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CONFIRMED BY
    
33. THE ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HOSTILE, CHARACTERIZED
    
34. BY EXCESSIVE WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT (SSTS 25-
    
35. 26C), NEGLIGIBLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), AND STRONG POLEWARD
    
36. OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
41. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
46.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 170600Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 170600Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 170336Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 170600Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
54.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56.    OTHER FACTORS: DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVERTOPPING THE LOW LEVEL
    
57. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 24
    
67. HOURS AND REINTRODUCED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AS THE
    
68. TRANSITION MECHANISM.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS NOW ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM
    
71. WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A MID-LATITUDE
    
72. EXTRATROPICAL LOW. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH-
    
73. SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR PERIPHERY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND
    
74. WILL SHORTLY BECOME VERTICALLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD-
    
75. CORE LOW. WHILE THIS ALIGNMENT REDUCES EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WHICH MIGHT
    
76. TYPICALLY FACILITATE DEEP CONVECTIVE REORGANIZATION, THE ENTRAINMENT
    
77. OF A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENT DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
    
78. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 12. THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
    
79. WILL GRADUALLY DECAY VIA CYCLOLYSIS; HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
    
80. ANTICIPATES TC 21S WILL COMPLETE STT AS A 45 KNOT SYSTEM BY TAU 24.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
83. INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST,
    
84. WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DURING THE SHORT
    
85. DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
    
86. AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THE HWRF DOES DEPICT THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING
    
87. BRIEFLY THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE
    
88. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE DEPICTS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
    
89. WEAKENING FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

复制代码

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 17 日 18 时
“盖扎尼”向南偏西方向移动

时  间: 2月17日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬29.5度，东经44度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西南方向约580公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由11级减弱为10级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时50公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度维持或缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月17日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 171226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 51/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 42.5 E
(THIRTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 81 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 620 SW: 520 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 185

36H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 150

48H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 175

60H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 43.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 595 SW: 415 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 280

72H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 655 SW: 480 NW: 595
34 KT NE: 445 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 325
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

THE REVIEW OF THE ASCAT-C SWATH OF 0544UTC ALLOWED US TO RECONSIDER
THE EVALUATION OF 06UTC AT 55KT, MODIFICATION DONE IN THE BEST-TRACK.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DVORAK DT
ASSESSMENT OF 3.5 CAN BE MADE. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF BAROCLINE
MECHANISMS INDICATES THAT GEZANI IS NOW HYBRID IN NATURE, AND A PT
ANALYSIS OF 2.5 IS PREFERABLE, GIVEN THE NOTABLE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE ASCAT PASS AT 0544UTC, WE ARE
MAINTAINING AN INERTIAL INTENSITY OF 55KT, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DETERIORATION IN THE PATTERN.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
GEZANI'S TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
STORM CURVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, PICKED UP BY THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, THUS MAKING WIND SHEAR DECREASE. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN
INTENSITY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKENING OVER WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, REACHING STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS NEAR
KERGUELEN ARCHIPELAGO ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

桑美和伊欧凯

算得上是擦边大师了，擦过莫桑比克和马达加斯加西南部

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 171835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.5 S / 42.0 E
(THIRTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 555 SW: 480 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 490 SW: 360 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150

24H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 150

36H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 405 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 150

48H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 42.4 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 215

60H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 45.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 675 SE: 685 SW: 405 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 185


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN REMAINED AROUND A
BROAD CENTRE EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN
PARTICULARLY WARM, PROBABLY DUE TO THE COLD WATERS (AROUND 24AOC
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS) OVER WHICH GEZANI IS MOVING.
THE 1557Z SAR RCM1 PASS AND THE 1502Z SMOS PASS GIVE A MAXIMUM WIND
ESTIMATION BETWEEN 50 AND 60KT. BUOY 1601737, LOCATED A LITTLE OVER
50NM FROM THE CENTER, ALSO MEASURED A PRESSURE CLOSE TO 995HPA AT
17Z. THE INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 55KT.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
GEZANI'S TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
STORM CURVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, PICKED UP BY THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN A SHEAR FREE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYMETRIC DEEP
WARM CORE REMAINS UNTIL WEDENESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 24H SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT, IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Ragasa

WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 021   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 31.5S 42.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.5S 42.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 34.2S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 36.9S 42.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 42.0E.
17FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567
NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WITH A SHALLOW,
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171551Z RCM-1
SAR IMAGE REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 55-60 KTS WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMCIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SLIGHT HIGH BIAS OF THE RCM-1 SENSOR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANALYZED TO BE UNFAVORABLE BASED ON
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO
SHALLOW OUT AND INTERACTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
22-23 C. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS
991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET.//
NNNN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 180049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 53/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.6 E
(THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 535 SW: 480 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 120

24H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 155

36H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 155

48H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 655 SE: 435 SW: 435 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 295

60H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 48.3 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 445 SW: 435 NW: 720
34 KT NE: 490 SE: 260 SW: 305 NW: 555
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 380

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND STRUCTURE HAS STRENGTHENED
WITH COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THE FIRST ESTIMATED WIND DATA FROM THE
2203Z GCOM-W PASS NO LONGER SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STORM-FORCE
WINDS. THE INTENSITY OF GEZANI HAS THEREFORE BEEN LOWERED TO 50KT.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
GEZANI'S TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH BEFORE THE STORM CURVES SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, CARRIED AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. THERE IS
LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN A SHEAR FREE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYMETRIC DEEP
WARM CORE REMAINS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 24H SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT, IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.