雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

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FNV3 06Z系集

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As of 8:00 PM today, 07 May 2026, Tropical Storm "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is still being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 05a) being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has dissipated.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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今天晚间ASCAT风场只扫到外围

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 3
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT
Issued at 11:00 PM, 07 May 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM tomorrow.
“HAGUPIT” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD.
Location of Center (10:00 PM):
The center of Tropical Storm HAGUPIT was estimated based on all available data at 1,750 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (7.9°N, 142.2°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• HAGUPIT is forecast to move west northwestward during the majority of the forecast period. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Saturday (09 May) evening and Sunday (10 May) morning and will be given the local name CALOY.
• In the next 24 hours, HAGUPIT will further intensify and may reach its peak intensity as a tropical storm. Afterwards, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, it will begin to weaken and may be downgraded to tropical depression by Monday evening (11 May) while over the Philippine Sea.
• HAGUPIT is less likely to directly affect the weather and sea conditions in the next 3 days.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA

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JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 071443
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 07/1430Z
C. 7.92N
D. 141.47E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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GFS 12Z稍有调强，巅峰约991百帕

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JMA 18Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 7.56N 141.16E
Motion: NW (279°), 4.63m/s
DT: 2.5       PT: 2.5
MET: 2.5    D0.5/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.5 b.o. PT

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JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 071804
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 8.00N
D. 141.29E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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SSD 18Z分析升至T3.0

TXPQ23 KNES 071835
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  07/1730Z
C.  8.0N
D.  141.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 1610Z AMSR2 PASS
SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO E QUAD. CDO TOPS AS COLD AS -93
C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GRDLY IMPROVING ALQDS. MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON PT DUE TO PULSING CDO CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    07/1610Z 7.9N 141.2E AMSR2
...KONON