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发表于 2026-5-10 15:49
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JTWC/05W/#19/05-10 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT)
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.1N 131.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 05W AS A SHALLOW AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
100423Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH (20-25 KTS) MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI,
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 100423Z AMSR2 DATA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW; THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SYSTEM.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 100600Z
CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 100600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 100600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 100429Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 100600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO ERRATIC TRACK MOTION AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. REGARDING INTENSITY,
HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TEETER BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24 DUE TO HIGH
MID-LEVEL SHEAR CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. LIKEWISE, RELIABLE INTENSITY
AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 05W WILL WEAKEN BELOW 25 KTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2026-5-10 14:09
