莫桑比克海峡热带气旋第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，或在海峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 18 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”向偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月18日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬33.1度，东经41.6度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 988百帕

参考位置: 距离马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西南方向约1045公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”强度变化不大

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月18日08时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 180643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 54/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 95 NW: 95

24H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 120

36H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 42.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 470 SW: 295 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 45.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 675 SE: 655 SW: 350 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SW: 155 NW: 295

60H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 48.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 850 SE: 655 SW: 215 NW: 500
34 KT NE: 565 SE: 455 SW: 120 NW: 285

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE,
AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THE WSFM
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0226Z SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T OF 2.5 AND A
CI OF 3.0+, CORRESPONDING TO AN AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MODELS, WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, GEZANI'S
TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH BEFORE THE STORM CURVES SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, CARRIED AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. IT SHOULD THEN
PASS CLOSE TO CROZET AND THEN KERGUELEN. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN
THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN A SHEAR FREE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYMETRIC DEEP
WARM CORE REMAINS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 24H SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT, IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 18 日 18 时
“盖扎尼”向偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月18日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬34.4度，东经41.5度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 988百帕

参考位置: 距离马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西南方向约1160公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由10级减弱为9级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2026年2月18日14时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 181236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 55/10/20252026
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.6 S / 41.6 E
(THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150

24H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 535 SW: 175 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 140 NW: 165

36H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 555 SW: 325 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 270

48H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 785 SE: 720 SW: 335 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 465 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 335
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 50.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 870 SE: 610 SW: 415 NW: 630
34 KT NE: 510 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 380
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL
PRESENT 380 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
EXPOSED, AS SHOWN BY CLASSICAL IMAGERY. THE 0628Z ASCAT PASS MEASURED
WINDS OF 40 KT, WHICH IS THE VALUE USED FOR AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY.
THE LOSS OF CONVECTION, THE CIRCULATION OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE POSITION SOUTH OF THE 30TH PARALLEL ARE ALL
CRITERIA THAT LEAD THE CMRS TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
GEZANI'S TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.  ON FRIDAY, IT SHOULD BE CARRIED AWAY BY THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND PASS CLOSE TO CROZET AND THEN KERGUELEN.
THERE IS LITTLE DISPERSION WITHIN THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DECLINE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL. GEZANI IS NOW GRADUALLY
LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).

莎莎

馬達加斯加  59人死亡  15人失蹤

莫桑比克  4人死亡

死傷在馬達加斯加還在提升

登陸地方靠近Toamasina 也是當地多年威力最強的一次旋風襲擊

報導上說有風暴潮 約1公尺高度.

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 182000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/182000Z-191800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8S 74.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
181535Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONSOLIDATING IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (TC 21S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 876 NM
SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND.THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOSING INTENSITY IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (21-
22 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DUE TO FINAL WARNING EXPIRING AND 21S
BECOMING FULLY SUBTROPICAL LISTED IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：张 玲  2026 年 02 月 19 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”减弱为热带低压

“盖扎尼”已于昨日夜间（18日，北京时）减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

（这是关于“盖扎尼”的最后一期监测公报）

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ABIO10 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/200100Z-201800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.9S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 200600Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC) AT
THAT TIME, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS),
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING
THE LLCC, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) THAT HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS,
DEVELOPMENT IS ASSESSED TO BE IMMINENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97S
CONTINUING TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 200100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 21S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 31.5S 42.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED THE TCFA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1).//
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