雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 07:22

FNV3 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 07:27

As of 2:00 AM today, 08 May 2026, Tropical Storm "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 07:28

JTWC 21Z分析升至T3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 072118
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 07/2030Z
C. 8.05N
D. 140.75E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1611Z 7.90N 141.68E AMS2
BALMER

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 08:30

GFS 18Z整体与上一报相比变化不大，巅峰约993百帕

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 08:33

JMA 00Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 8.02N 140.14E
Motion: NW (288°), 5.14m/s
DT: 2.5 PT: 2.5
MET: 2.5 D0.5/24HRS
CI: 2.5 FT: 2.5 b.o. PT

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 08:34

JTWC 00Z分析维持T3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 080001
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 07/2330Z
C. 8.17N
D. 139.97E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1903Z 8.02N 141.07E SSMS
BALMER

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 08:35

SSD 00Z分析降至T2.5/3.0

TXPQ23 KNES 080014
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  07/2330Z
C.  8.4N
D.  139.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 1904Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWED MOST DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO E QUAD. CDO TOPS AS COLD AS -93
C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW IMPROVING ALQDS. MET=3.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON PT
DUE TO PULSING CDO CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
07/1904Z 8.0N 140.8E SSMIS
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-5-8 09:43

ECMWF 18Z系集

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