MEDIUM - 阿拉弗拉海33U(93P) - 7.8S 136.3E

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ECMWF及GFS 18Z继续支持一定程度发展

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ABPW10 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090300Z-090600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, NHULUNBUY, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING UNDER ORGANIZING
CONVECTION. A 082316Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOTS WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 29-31 C. FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED
POSITION REVEALS ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER
WATER, THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

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Forecast description
Tropical Low 33U
Tropical low developing in northern Arafura Sea.

• Tropical low 33U is expected to form in the northern Arafura Sea, near the coast of West Papua, this weekend.
  

• There is a Moderate likelihood that 33U strengthens into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday before it weakens again by the middle of next week.
  

• 33U is expected to remain north of the Northern Territory and not directly impact the Top End coast.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 12:30 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 11 May 12:00 am

Sun 11 May 12:00 pm

Mon 12 May 12:00 am

Mon 12 May 12:00 pm

Tue 13 May 12:00 am

Tue 13 May 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Tropical Low 33U

None

Less than 5% Very Low

5% Low

25% Moderate

30% Moderate

30% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

5% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, NHULUNBUY, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
20-25 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD, THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ECMWF及GFS 00Z继续支持一定程度发展

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Forecast description
Tropical Low 33U
Tropical low developing in northern Arafura Sea.

• Tropical low 33U is forming in the northern Arafura Sea, near the coast of West Papua.
  

• There is a Moderate likelihood that 33U strengthens into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday before it weakens again by the middle of next week.
  

• 33U is expected to remain north of the Northern Territory and not directly impact the Top End coast.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 08:26 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 11 May 12:00 am

Sun 11 May 12:00 pm

Mon 12 May 12:00 am

Mon 12 May 12:00 pm

Tue 13 May 12:00 am

Tue 13 May 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 33U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

5% Low

25% Moderate

35% Moderate

35% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

5% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

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ECMWF及GFS 06Z继续支持一定程度发展

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稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

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GFS 12Z继续支持一定程度发展

Leonardo