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JTWC 10/2230Z
ABPW10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A
WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU
24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230)
FOR FURTH DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING
VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A
101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2025-5-11 09:30
发表于 2025-5-11 10:24
