MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

菌菇月亮

深对流集中在西侧

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 210255
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 16.44N
D. 72.44E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

Dfmkrosa

哈，目前的风场啥也不是，要么本身向西移动一点，要么就得等其进行内部置换。

吕汉东没亩

目前93A涡度浑圆并开始泛白，辐合与辐散较好。

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及SSD 06Z分析均维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 210552
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 21/0530Z
C. 16.74N
D. 71.80E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/0237Z  16.38N  72.37E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

TXIO22 KNES 210603
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  21/0530Z
C.  16.3N
D.  71.3E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT=1.0. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

Dfmkrosa

吕汉东没亩 发表于 2025-5-21 13:30
目前93A涡度浑圆并开始泛白，辐合与辐散较好。

这种反演的哈基涡度/幅合幅散一点用没有。需要后续确认风场形态才能看出是否有所好转。

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

IMD今天下午报文表示高空气旋环流已经形成，未来12小时内可能形成低压区，接下来的36小时内可能加强为低压

An upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric level lay over Eastcentral Arabian
Sea off North Karnataka-Goa coasts at 0000 UTC of today, the 21st May 2025 and persisted over
same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 21st May, 2025. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is
likely to form over the same region during next 12 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to move nearly
northwards and intensify further into a depression during subsequent 36 hours.
Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense convection over
eastcentral Arabian Sea, south Konkan-Goa & coastal Karnataka. Minimum cloud top temperature
-60℃ to -70℃.
Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay
over eastcentral Arabian Sea, Gulf of Cambay. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded
moderate to intense convection lay over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast and also
over south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, Maldives & Comorin area and isolated weak to
moderate convection lay over westcentral Arabian Sea.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 210857
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 21/0830Z
C. 16.47N
D. 71.22E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN