墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062151ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072152ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 108.3W TO 13.5N 110.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062030Z INDICATES THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 108.5W, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. A
071719Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KTS WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST
91E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
91E WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PHNC 062200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082200Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 100.2W
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of the southern coast of Mexico have
continued to become more organized this afternoon. Although it is
unclear whether the system has a well-defined circulation, further
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday. The system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 15 mph tonight, then continue
in that general direction through early next week. Locally heavy
rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
early next week as it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late next week or next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析T1.5

TXPZ25 KNES 080027
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)
B.  08/0000Z
C.  11.6N
D.  108.9W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

pocketbox

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico have become better organized this evening. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form on Sunday or early next week as it moves
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. For more information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T1.5

TXPZ25 KNES 080558
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)
B.  08/0530Z
C.  11.9N
D.  109.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

467
ABPZ20 KNHC 081126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Barbara, located a couple hundred miles off the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico have become better organized overnight. Further development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is likely to form later today or tonight as it moves
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. For more information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Jelsema

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T2.0

TXPZ25 KNES 081234
TCSENP
CCA
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)
B.  08/1130Z
C.  12.5N
D.  110.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR SWIR BAND. 3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT
OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

yhh

WTPZ43 KNHC 081434
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico have shown
considerable improvement this morning. Well-organized curved bands
have been present during the last 6-12 hours with deep convection
building near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB came in at 1.5/25 kt and
2.0/30 kt, respectively. Additionally, overnight satellite-derived
wind data showed 30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the low
pressure area. Given the improved convective organization and data
suggesting maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, Tropical Depression
Three-E has now formed with the initial intensity set at 30 kt.

The initial motion of Tropical Depression Three-E is set at 310/07
kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight,
followed by a much more uncertain motion Monday through mid-week due
to the expected interaction with Tropical Storm Barbara. This
interaction will likely result in a decrease in forward speed and a
more northward to northeastward motion on Monday, followed by an
increase in forward speed and a shift back to the northwest by
Tuesday. The track forecast generally follows the consensus
guidance, which is in between the two extremes of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

Tropical Depression Three-E is forecast to remain in a low to
moderate vertical wind shear environment with warm sea surface
temperatures of 27 to 28C and abundant deep layer moisture during
the next couple days. This should allow for steady strengthening,
and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. By
Monday night, the tropical cyclone will begin to move over much
cooler water below 26C, and this in combination with the interaction
with Barbara should result in rather rapid weakening, with the
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The
intensity forecast is roughly a split of the statistical and
dynamical consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T2.0

TXPZ25 KNES 081809
TCSENP
A.  03E (NONAME)
B.  08/1730Z
C.  12.9N
D.  110.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5. THE
PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE
NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN