墨西哥以南热带风暴“芭芭拉”(02E.Barbara) - 西北行进，上望飓风，远期或将与03E藤原

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T1.5

TXPZ24 KNES 071824
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  07/1800Z
C.  14.2N
D.  99.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

ygsj24

WTPN22 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062152ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072151ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 100.1W TO 16.4N 104.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072040Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 100.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 100.2W, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A
071627Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KTS
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INVEST 92E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 92E WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22
PHNC 062200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082200Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 108.5W
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of the southern coast of Mexico have
continued to become more organized this afternoon. Although it is
unclear whether the system has a well-defined circulation, further
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday. The system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 15 mph tonight, then continue
in that general direction through early next week. Locally heavy
rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
early next week as it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late next week or next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析维持T1.5

TXPZ24 KNES 080029
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  08/0000Z
C.  15.2N
D.  101.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

理可的呆萌呆毛

Emilia & Fabio 2.0?

pocketbox

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico
have become better organized this evening. Recent satellite-derived
wind data indicate that the circulation has become better defined,
and the system is already producing gale-force winds. If these
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical storm
later tonight. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at
around 10 mph during the next few days. Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in
association with this system, and interests there should monitor its
progress. For more information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T1.5

TXPZ24 KNES 080552
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  08/0530Z
C.  15.3N
D.  101.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

xiaoqianWX

EP, 92, 2025060806, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1020W, 40, 1001, DB,
要升了

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描