2502号热带气旋“圣帕”(02W.Sepat)机构发报专帖

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WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.2N 145.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 02W WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A
221103Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED 25-30 KTS WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT SHOWED
HOW ASYEMETRIC THE WIND FIELD CURRENTLY IS, WITH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY WEAKER (10-15 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING THE ELEVATED SHEAR AND OUTFLOW TO
BE RESTRICTED. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE LACK OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF THE ASCAT, AGENCY DVORAK, AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS DPRINT: 20 KTS AT 221200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 27 KTS AT 220859Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: PRESSURE FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE WEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 48. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL
HONSHU. 02W WILL THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 02W IS
FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE VORTEX
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TUTT CELL AND SHEAR DECREASES. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL BEGIN TO WANE SIMULTANEOUSLY THOUGH, PUTTING A
CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. NEAR TAU 48, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. SEA
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 C AT TAU 72 AND THEN 22 C
AT TAU 96, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DROP BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES HONSHU. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR NEAR TAU 96 DUE TO COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING SHEAR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A RECURVE SCENARIO. NAVGEM IS THE PRIMARY
OUTLIER, AS IT HAS THE SYSTEM MOVE MORE QUICKLY AND RECURVE SOONER
THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSER TO THE MAIN GROUPING OF TRACKERS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASE IN
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
CONSENSUS MEMBERS RANGING FROM 30-45 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 96. HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED) ARE THE
TWO SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS OF THE BUNCH. OVERALL, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年06月23日01時15分発表

23日00時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯23度25分 (23.4度)
東経145度40分 (145.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

24日00時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の北西約170km
予報円の中心        北緯28度20分 (28.3度)
東経141度10分 (141.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

24日21時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約170km
予報円の中心        北緯31度35分 (31.6度)
東経139度35分 (139.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

2018_26W

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年06月23日04時15分発表

23日03時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯23度55分 (23.9度)
東経145度10分 (145.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

24日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の北北西約120km
予報円の中心        北緯28度05分 (28.1度)
東経141度50分 (141.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        110 km (60 NM)

25日03時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約120km
予報円の中心        北緯32度00分 (32.0度)
東経139度40分 (139.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        165 km (90 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 23.9N 145.2E
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 23.9N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
    
11.   THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    
12.   INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    
13.   ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
16.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    
17.   SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
    
18.   INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
    
19.   GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
    
20.   IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
    
21. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
22.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
23.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    
24.   NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    
25.   PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    
26.   CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    
27. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
28.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
29.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
    
30.   SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
31.   INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    
32.   UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
    
33.   TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
    
34.   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
35. =

复制代码

2018_26W

No.4 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Mon, 23 Jun 2025, 04:30

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Sun, 22 Jun 2025, 18:00 Analysis	-	TD	15	54	1008	23.8	145.3	NW	10			-
Mon, 23 Jun 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1002	27.9	141.4	NW	25	230 [SW 130]		90
Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1004	31.8	139.1	NNW	20	200 [SW 100]		130
Wed, 25 Jun 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	TD	13	47	1008	36.0	140.7	NNE	20			190

2018_26W

熱帶性低氣壓TD03

現況
2025年06月23日02時
中心位置在北緯 24.0 度，東經 145.2 度
過去移動方向 西北
過去移動時速 14公里
中心氣壓 1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 24 公里
預測 06月23日08時
中心位置在北緯 25.0 度，東經 144.3 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 45 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 21 公里
預測 06月23日14時
中心位置在北緯 25.9 度，東經 143.5 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里
預測 12 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 24 公里
預測 06月23日20時
中心位置在北緯 26.9 度，東經 142.6 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 110 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 28 公里
預測 06月24日02時
中心位置在北緯 28.2 度，東經 141.7 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 20 公里
預測 06月24日14時
中心位置在北緯 30.1 度，東經 140.5 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 18 公里
預測 06月25日02時
中心位置在北緯 31.9 度，東經 139.5 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 270 公里

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 145.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 145.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 25.6N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 27.7N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 29.6N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 31.2N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 34.6N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 37.9N 144.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 144.9E.
22JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.8N 145.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 227 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD) 02W. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INTRODUCING ELEVATED SHEAR AND
RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). WHILE THE LLCC IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE DUE TO LACK OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION, THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
INTO
THE LLCC HAS PICKED UP OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 221730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 221730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 221730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TUTT CELL CENTERED TO THE WEST LIMITING THE
OUTFLOW

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, WHILE SLOWLY AND STEADILY INTENSIFYING, DUE TO WARM
SST. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KTS WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND MAINTAIN IT FOR ANOTHER DAY. AT THAT POINT,
RAPIDLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH REDUCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING AND BEGINNING OF
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, TD 02W WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR AND START
HEADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
105 NM AT TAU 48, EXPANDING TO 200 NM AT TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHRINKS DOWN TO 65 NM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIMELINE AND THE LOCATION OF THE RECURVE AXIS, WITH NAVGEM BEING
THE PRIMARY OUTLIER AND SUGGESTING THE TRACK AT LEAST 90 NM EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF JAPAN. SHORT-TERM INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. PRIMARY
OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC, WHICH SUGGESTS DISSIPATION
WITHIN 36 HOURS, AND HAFS-A, WHICH PREDICTS INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 96 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE FOR HAFS-A HOWEVER IS TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST AND
RECURVING SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE ASSESSED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM AND
LOW CONFIDENCE, FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年06月23日07時15分発表

23日06時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯24度10分 (24.2度)
東経144度55分 (144.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

24日06時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の北北西約170km
予報円の中心        北緯28度30分 (28.5度)
東経141度30分 (141.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25 km/h (13 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        110 km (60 NM)

25日03時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約120km
予報円の中心        北緯32度00分 (32.0度)
東経139度40分 (139.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        165 km (90 NM)

yhh

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 230000
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (24.6) 9887 9976
(144.8) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9923 9800 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(2502) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9706 9923 9800 =
NNNN

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 230000
CCAA 23000 99398 11165
SEPAT 02246 11448 1129/ 225// 93108
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 230000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS SEPAT 2502 (2502) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC
00HR 24.6N 144.8E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
260KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 26.7N 142.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 28.8N 141.1E 990HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 30.5N 140.0E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 32.1N 139.2E 995HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 34.4N 139.4E 995HPA 20M/S
P+72HR 36.9N 141.1E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月23日10時30分発表

23日09時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯24度30分 (24.5度)
東経144度40分 (144.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

23日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の東南東約80km
予報円の中心        北緯26度50分 (26.8度)
東経142度55分 (142.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

24日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の北北西約260km
予報円の中心        北緯29度10分 (29.2度)
東経141度05分 (141.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)

25日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南南西約60km
予報円の中心        北緯32度35分 (32.6度)
東経139度30分 (139.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        155 km (85 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2502 SEPAT (2502)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 23.9N, 145.2E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
   
6.   (SEPAT) STATUS. TS SEPAT IS LOCATED AT 24.5N, 144.7E. INFORMATION
   
7.   ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
   
8.   OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
   
9.   1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
   
10.   THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    
11.   INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
    
12.   TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    
13.   INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    
14.   OBSERVATIONS.
    
15. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
16.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
17.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    
18.   SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
    
19.   INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
    
20.   GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
    
21.   IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
    
22.   GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
    
23.   CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
24. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
25.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
26.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
27.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
28.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    
29.   AGREEMENT.
    
30. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
31.   THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    
32.   INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
    
33.   SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
34.   INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
    
35.   TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
    
36.   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
37. =

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