LOW - 关岛西北97W - 14.9N 142.7E - 数值支持发展，未来路径扑朔迷离 - JMA:LPA

Enceladus

GFS 2512Z Main-run(INVEST 97W)
▸ Range: +120Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 55KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

GFS 2512Z Main-run(INVEST 97W)
▸ Range: +264Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 65KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

本报的参考价值很低

红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天凌晨予想天气图继续预报+48h LPA

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 260230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260230Z-260600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25JUN25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
252100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25JUN25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 252100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N
142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST
WITH GFS GRADUALLY INCREASING MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 260230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260230Z-260600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25JUN25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
252100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25JUN25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 252100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N
142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST
WITH GFS GRADUALLY INCREASING MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z认定LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

lawman

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-26 10:11
ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

西進同北進分叔在於97W強度發展
西進預料初期發展緩慢，受低壓氣流影響緩慢西移
北進預料初期發展偏快,強度愈高受到高層副高氣流引導愈明顯