小笠原群岛西南热带低压06W - 逐渐北上，或将影响日本关东地区 - JMA:GW

Enceladus

93W INVEST 250710 1200 23.2N 141.8E WPAC 25 1006

Enceladus

93W INVEST 250710 1800 24.4N 141.1E WPAC 30 1004

TPPN12 PGTW 101755
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (S OF IWO TO)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 24.25N
D. 141.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

MUSE

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.6N 142.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER.
A 101131Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
ELEVATED (25-30KT) SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.9N
126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B
PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2
GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE
OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

Liv.

327

JMA内部编号07W，即将发布TD[W]

bucks

327 发表于 2025-7-11 09:45
JMA内部编号07W，即将发布TD[W]

受冷涡影响还是大，现在LLCC再次裸露

pocketbox

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 24.9N 140.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NW 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Enceladus

GFS 1100Z Main-run(SIX 06W)
▸ Range: +72Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximum Expected Intensity: 45KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

Enceladus

ASCAT C UHR 23Z