墨西哥以西热带风暴“朱丽叶”(10E.Juliette)

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 252032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025

A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed that Juliette is now
producing maximum winds around 50 kt within the southeastern
quadrant.  The center is well embedded beneath a persistent burst
of deep convection, but interestingly, the cyclone has also been
producing another semi-disconnected burst of convection to the
southwest of the center.  Juliette has another 24-36 hours before
it reaches cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere.
Continued strengthening is expected in the short term, and Juliette
does have the potential to become a hurricane.  In fact, the
latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are showing a 40-45
percent change of a 25-kt increase over the next day.  The NHC
forecast therefore explicitly shows Juliette becoming a hurricane
in 24 hours.  Weakening is anticipated to begin in 36 hours, and
Juliette could become post-tropical in about 3 days when it loses
its deep convection.  Dissipation into a trough is likely by day 5.

The initial motion is west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt.  
Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near
and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is
expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then
the north-northwest by late Wednesday.  The NHC largely follows a
blend of the previous forecast and the Google Deep Mind model, but
overall there isn't much spread in the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 17.6N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 260232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Juliette continues to strengthen. A microwave pass from a few hours
ago suggested that the storm was developing an inner core, and
recent infrared satellite images indicate that banding features are
increasing south of the center. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS have all increased to 3.5/55 kt, and therefore, the
initial wind speed is increased to that value.

Juliette is expected to remain in favorable conditions to strengthen
for about another day, and it seems likely that it will become a
hurricane on Tuesday. However, the strengthening trend should end by
Tuesday night when the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST
isotherm and then move into an environment of drier air and stronger
shear. Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days
when it is forecast to be over cool 22 C waters, and dissipate
entirely this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN models.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest
side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and
then the north-northwest with a notable reduction in forward speed
is expected over the next few days as Juliette moves toward a
weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one and lies on the western side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with EMXI and the Google DeepMind
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 08 月 26 日 10 时
东北太平洋热带风暴“朱丽叶”生成

时        间:    26日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “朱丽叶”，JULIETTE

中心位置:    西经115.1度, 北纬17.5度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    998百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约818公里

变化过程:    ”朱丽叶”昨天傍晚在东北太平洋生成

预报结论:    “朱丽叶”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月26日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 260836
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Juliette's satellite appearance has remained fairly steady overnight
with curved banding mainly to the south of the center. Recent
microwave imagery shows that Juliette is still trying to develop a
small inner core, which has not become better established since the
previous advisory. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed tonight given
the small size of the system it fell within the data gap. There is a
bit of a range from subjective and objective intensity estimates
this cycle between 44 to 65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates,
the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt.

The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
290/ 11 kt. The storm is being steered along the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge located to the north. A gradual turn to the
northwest then north-northwest is anticipated as a weakness in the
ridge develops over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast track
was nudged slightly to the right in the short term between the
consensus aids on the right with Google DeepMind and EMXI on the
left.

Juliette should remain within a favorable environment, with warm sea
surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear for the next
18-24 h , which will allow for some strengthening. However, by early
Wednesday the system will be crossing into cooler sea surface
temperatures, and into a drier airmass. Latest SHIPS model guidance
depicts wind shear also increases in about 48 h. The latest NHC
intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, and shows some
strengthening possible today, although since the inner core has not
established, the peak intensity is now just below hurricane
strength. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast between 24-36
h, followed by a faster rate of weakening beyond 36 h. Juliette is
forecast to become a remnant low by 60 h, before opening into a
trough and dissipating by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、曹越男  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 08 月 26 日 18 时
“朱丽叶”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:    26日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “朱丽叶”，JULIETTE

中心位置:    西经115.9度, 北纬18.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    996百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约820公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，”朱丽叶”由7级加强为10级

预报结论:    “朱丽叶”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月26日14时00分）

菜园子

eagle和fnv3

pocketbox

WTPZ45 KNHC 261433
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent GPM/GMI microwave pass
indicate that Juliette has become better organized during the
past few hours.  Deep convection has increased near and to the east
of the surface center, and the GPM image revealed an impressive
tightly curved band wrapping around the center from the southwest.  
Based on the cyclone's improved cloud pattern and the subjective
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is
nudged upward to 60 kt.

Although not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, there's still a
possibility that Juliette could briefly become a hurricane later
today, and a couple of the hurricane models are indicating this as
well.  By Wednesday, however, a weakening trend is expected while
Juliette traverses progressively cooler oceanic surface
temperatures and moves into a more inhibiting surrounding
thermodynamic environment.  Juliette is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low by Thursday night and open into a trough over the
weekend.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and resembles the IVCN intensity consensus aid.  

Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
320/9 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
subtropical ridge to the northeast.  A slower north-northwestward
motion is expected late Wednesday in response to a growing weakness
in the aforementioned subtropical ridge.  The official track
forecast is nudged a bit to the left of the previous one and
is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble and ECMWF deterministic
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 262034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

The center of Juliette appears to be near the northern edge of the
central convective area, as there could still be some moderate
northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone.  Overall, the structure
appears similar to, but slightly degraded compared to, the system's
appearance on satellite imagery 6 h ago.  The latest objective
intensity estimates have been running in the 45-50 kt range, and the
latest Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are both 3.5 (55 kt).  The
initial intensity is set at 55 kt for this advisory.

Although vertical wind shear over Juliette is forecast to be very
low for the next 24-30 h, the cyclone is expected to cross the 26C
sea-surface temperature (SST) isotherm by hour 12, and water
temperatures will continue to decrease with time along its path.
Juliette will also be moving into a progressively drier and more
stable airmass.  Little change in strength is expected over the next
12-24 h, but steady weakening is expected when the cyclone moves
over colder water and through drier air.  The NHC intensity forecast
is near the higher end of the guidance through 24 h, but lies in the
middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.  Beyond 36 h,
southwesterly wind shear will increase as Juliette moves closer to
an upper-level trough located well to its northwest.  The increasing
shear, along with the cold SSTs and dry air, should cause the
cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 2
days. Global models show the remnant low gradually spinning down and
dissipating in 3 to 4 days.

Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 325/9 kt.
This general motion should continue over the next couple of days as
Juliette moves in between two strong mid-level ridges, one located
over northwestern Mexico and the other located well to the
west-northwest of the cyclone.  Juliette should slow down some on
Wednesday as the steering currents weaken on the west side of the
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.  There has been a large
northeastward shift to the guidance this cycle.  The latest official
forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean, but not nearly as far to the right as some of the other
consensus models like the TCVE and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 08 月 27 日 10 时
“朱丽叶”向西北方向移动

时        间:    27日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “朱丽叶”，JULIETTE

中心位置:    西经117.7度, 北纬20.4度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    996百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西偏南方向约858公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，”朱丽叶”强度变化不大

预报结论:    “朱丽叶”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月27日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 270240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102025
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Juliette has changed little in organization since earlier today,
but the overall coverage and intensity of deep convection has
decreased.  Most of the strongest thunderstorm activity is occurring
in a small cluster just to the southeast of the estimated center.  
Convective banding features are not particularly well-defined.  The
advisory intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with Dvorak
classifications of 3.5/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB and an objective
DPRINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS.

The storm continues on its northwestward trek with a motion estimate
of about 325/10 kt.  Juliette is moving on the western periphery of
a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico.  
This steering regime should continue through tomorrow.  In 48 hours,
the cyclone should weaken and move more slowly in the low-level
flow.  The official track forecast is somewhat to the right of the
previous one, but not as far to the right as the latest dynamical
model consensus.

Juliette is currently crossing a strong gradient of SSTs and is
headed for much cooler waters.  This, along with drier low- to
mid-level air and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is very
close to the DSHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA numerical guidance.  Given the
expected future environment, the tropical cyclone could weaken even
faster then indicated here.

Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with Juliette or its
remnants will probably spread over portions of northwestern Mexico
and the southwestern U.S. during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch