东太平洋二级飓风“基科”(11E.Kiko) - 环流小巧，西行发展 - NHC:90KT

ygsj24

321
ABPZ20 KNHC 302328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located
about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to lack a well-defined low-level circulation.  
However, shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while moving westward at
around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
The system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low pressure
is expected to form from this system early next week, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week
while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  If
these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to develop
later tonight or on Sunday while it moves generally westward around
10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin.  The
system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low pressure
is expected to form from this system within the next day or two,
and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of
next week while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

WTPZ41 KNHC 310834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A
0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation
with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement
in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial
intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by
a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is
forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining
a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern
Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The
official forecast track is close to the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady
strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected
to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane
strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s
track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some
mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification
later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to
higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends
closer to the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

WTPZ41 KNHC 311436
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2 pass show a curved band
wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, along with a
burst of deep convection developing over the center where cloud tops
are near -80 C. The convective banding now wraps more than halfway
around the circulation, which, along with Dvorak current intensity
estimates of 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and up to 3.0/45 kt from SAB,
supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an initial
intensity of 35 kt.

Kiko is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong
subtropical ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to
remain in place throughout the 5-day forecast period, maintaining a
general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and into the
central Pacific basin by late this week. The official track forecast
is nearly identical to the previous forecast and remains close to
the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear favor steady
strengthening during the next couple of days. Kiko is forecast to
reach hurricane intensity by around 48 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter,
the cyclone’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the potential
entrainment of mid-level dry air, could limit any additional
significant intensification. Also, any deviation of the track
slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system
over cooler waters and further inhibit strengthening. The intensity
forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope
through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 14.4N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 312033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours,
with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western
side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show
tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues
at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite
intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data.  
The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the
circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud
swirls present.

The initial motion remains 270/8 kt.  Kiko is on the south side of
a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between
120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next
several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south
of westward through the forecast period.  While the track guidance
generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a
considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF
being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h.  The
new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just
north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south
of and slower than the previous forecast.

Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while
it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After
72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that
could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions.
Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening
followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h.  There are
two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid
intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their
climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core
suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during
the next 72 h.  Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the
track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the
system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The
new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous
forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、张增海  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 09 月 01 日 10 时
“基科”于昨夜在东北太平洋生成

时        间:   1日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经124.2度，北纬14.5度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1005百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1900公里

变化过程:    过去12小时，“基科”强度略有增强

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月1日08时00分）

ygsj24

646
WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko is gradually organizing. The tropical storm is producing bands
of deep convection near the center and on its south side. The
latest satellite intensity estimates are generally between 40 and
45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged
upward to 40 kt.

Kiko is moving westward at 8 kt. An expansive mid-level ridge
situated across the subtropical eastern and central Pacific should
keep Kiko on a westward, or perhaps even a little south of due west,
path throughout the week. The models agree on the overall synoptic
pattern, but there are notable differences in their predicted
forward speeds. The NHC track forecast lies near the faster end of
the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and EMXI models.
Kiko is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin in 4 to 5
days.

While the wind shear around Kiko is expected to be relatively low
over the next several days, the surrounding moisture and SSTs along
its forecast track are just marginally favorable for the storm.
There are significant differences in the intensity model solutions
that vary from Kiko remaining a tropical storm to becoming a major
hurricane. Since Kiko appears to be developing an inner core, it
seems likely that the storm should strengthen steadily over the next
few days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one and roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Kiko is currently a compact system. Although it is forecast to get
larger, the model guidance suggests that it will likely be on the
smaller side through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.5N 124.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010839
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko remains a compact tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows
deep convection developing over the center with cloud top
temperatures around -80 C and curved bands wrapping into the
circulation. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB remain at 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 35
to 45 kt. A 0536 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated peak winds near 34 kt on
the northern side of the storm. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is now moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. This general
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a
more westward track through about 96 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone
should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into
the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential
weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands.
While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains
considerable spread in the along-track speed among the models. The
NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and leans
heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which lie on the
faster side of the guidance envelope.

Light vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture should
support strengthening during the next few days, although Kiko’s
forecast track keeps it near the 26 C isotherm and into a somewhat
drier environment after midweek. Based on the latest SHIPS guidance
and the cyclone’s small, compact core, a period of more rapid
intensification cannot be ruled out through midweek. Kiko is
forecast to become a hurricane within 36 hours and peak at 85 kt in
72 hours, which is near the higher end of the guidance envelope.
Beyond that time, any increase in latitude would likely bring the
storm over cooler waters, inhibiting any additional significant
strengthening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 14.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛 畅、张增海  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 09 月 01 日 18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   1日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经125.1度，北纬14.1度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1004百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1875公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”强度略有增强

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月1日14时00分）

菜园子

C3看起来没问题~