TCFA - 琉球群岛东南热带低压TD 12(95W) - 21.8N 132.0E - 逐渐北上发展 - JMA:GW

乐正六边形

JMA：GW，上望 40 节

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乐正六边形 发表于 2025-9-2 21:46
JMA：GW，上望 40 节

其实最后一报是45节，转温时还在加强

普通的台风迷

系统将贴着副热带高压西侧前进，西侧的冷涡大概率将会成为发展的障碍。

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021500Z-030600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021451ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.9N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. A 021252Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS
FORMED BELOW THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 25-30
KNOT GRADIENT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH A NORTHWARD
TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT A
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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