墨西哥以南热带风暴“马里奥”(13E.Mario) - 短暂成旋

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 121444
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

37-GHz AMSR2 data from 0823 UTC did an excellent job showing the
well-defined center of the small tropical cyclone about 20 n mi off
the coast of Guerrero, Mexico.  As noted in the previous forecast,
an ASCAT pass from overnight showed maximum winds just over 30 kt.  
The convective organization has been increasing since that time,
and the depression has powered up to Tropical Storm Mario with
maximum winds estimated at 35 kt.  This is supported by a T2.5/35
kt from TAFB and 35-40 kt objective estimates from ADT, AiDT, and
SATCON.

Model guidance is having a challenging time simulating Mario's
future due to the storm's small size and proximity to Mexico's
coastal topography.  Some models, including the ECWMF and many of
the Google DeepMind ensemble members, show the system moving inland
and dissipating today.  Assuming Mario stays offshore, it is likely
to contend with moderate shear out of the north or northeast for the
next 36 hours while moving over very warm water temperatures around
30 degrees Celsius.  Shear is expected to be low beyond 36 hours,
and some strengthening is therefore shown in the NHC intensity
forecast.  Some of the hurricane models continue to show Mario
reaching hurricane strength, but given the large degree of
uncertainty, the NHC forecast leans much closer to the IVCN
consensus at this time.  Mario is expected to reach colder waters by
day 5, and transition to a post-tropical cyclone is shown at that
time.

Mario has been moving faster toward the west-northwest (295/12 kt),
moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.  A mid-level ridge
extending across northern Mexico westward over the Pacific waters
is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward trajectory, but
at a slower speed, for at least the next 4 days.  The models that
maintain Mario's identity agree on this scenario, and no
significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast.

Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, the
government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small
segment of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact
southern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.  Gusty winds are possible elsewhere
along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through
tonight.  Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the
progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 17.2N 101.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 121753
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
1200 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
MICHOACAN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 102.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Mario.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 102.8 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through this evening.  A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the
weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then
begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday.
This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today.  Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along
coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

Mario continues to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico.  An
afternoon scatterometer pass showed that Mario is still located just
off the coast, with deep convection periodically forming near the
low-level center and being sheared off to the west.  Peak wind
vectors from the ASCAT pass were only 25 kt, however, the instrument
is likely unable to resolve Mario's peak winds due to the small size
of the storm.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, closest to
the TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5.

Numerical models are still struggling to forecast Mario due to the
storm's tiny circulation and proximity to the Mexican coastline.  
The European global model, Google DeepMind, and their ensembles
generally show the system either moving inland or opening into a
trough just offshore later today.  Of the systems that maintain
Mario for longer into the forecast period, the intensity guidance
envelope has trended downward this cycle.  Moderate vertical wind
shear is expected to plague the system for the next day or so, which
should limit any strengthening.  If Mario can survive this stage,
the environmental conditions are forecast to briefly become more
conducive for some gradual intensification early next week.  By the
end of the forecast period, cool sea surface temperatures and
increasing shear should quickly weaken and dissipate the small
system.  Based on the latest guidance, the NHC intensity forecast
now shows Mario becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 and
dissipating by day 5.

Mario continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated 12 kt,
moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.  A mid-level ridge
to the north is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward
trajectory, but at a slower forward motion, through the end of the
forecast period.  The models that maintain Mario's circulation are
general well clustered, and only minor adjustments were made to the
NHC track forecast.

Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, there is
a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for a small segment of the coast
from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact
Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.  Gusty winds are possible elsewhere
along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through
tonight.  Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the
progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 122331
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Mario.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.8 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several hours.  A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through
the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then
begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for
especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan for the next few hours.  Gusty winds are
possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董 林  2025 年 09 月 13 日 10 时
“马里奥”于昨夜在东北太平洋生成

时        间:   13日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “马里奥”，MARIO

中心位置:    西经104.0度，北纬17.9度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1006百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥科利马州曼萨尼约南偏东方向约140公里

变化过程:    过去12小时，“马里奥”强度维持

预报结论:   “马里奥”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月13日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130233
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

The low-level center of Mario was apparent this afternoon near the
convective mass just off of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Since
that time, satellite imagery shows that a large low-pressure area is
developing to the south of Mario, with vorticity centers noted near
17N 106W and 15N 103W. This is causing the small circulation of
Mario to lose its identity as it seems to be becoming a part of the
larger circulation.  In addition, the convection near the center has
decreased during the past several hours, and there has been a
corresponding decrease in satellite intensity estimates. Based on
these developments, Mario is downgraded to a tropical depression
with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The dynamical models show several possible scenarios for the
evolution of Mario during the next few days. The ECMWF and Canadian
models show the system dissipating as it becomes absorbed into the
larger low during the next day or two. The UKMET does not absorb
Mario into the low, but shows it degenerating into a trough and
moving northwestward and then westward around the north side of the
low. The GFS, in contrast, uses the Mario circulation to become the
center of the larger low, although it keeps the winds below 35 kt
through the forecast period. The regional hurricane models show the
possibility of a tropical storm re-forming near or west of Socorro
Island in a few days, although it is unclear whether this
development is related to the current Mario circulation.  Given
these scenarios, the current trends, and the previous forecast, the
new intensity forecast calls for Mario to continue as a depression
for 36 h before dissipating inside the larger low. However, an
alternative scenario is that the circulation could degenerate to a
trough at any time.

The initial motion is 290/13. If Mario manages to maintain its
identity, it should turn more westward during the next 36 h as it
moves around the north side of the larger low.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Mario will impact Jalisco and
nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. While all coastal watches have been discontinued for Mexico,
gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western
Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.  Interests in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 18.1N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 18.8N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 19.2N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 19.7N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

桑美和伊欧凯

虽然紧贴海岸线，但对流集中在南侧，对陆地的影响十分有限

pocketbox

WTPZ63 KNHC 130532
TCUEP3

Remnants of Mario Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
1130 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate
that Mario no longer has a well-defined center of circulation.
Therefore, a special, final, advisory will be issued by 1200 AM
CST...0600 UTC, in lieu of the 0900 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 130559
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Mario Special Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025

Recent ASCAT-C wind data and proxy-visible satellite images indicate
that Mario no longer has a well-defined circulation center and has
degenerated into a surface trough offshore of southwestern Mexico.
Therefore, this is the final NHC advisory on the system. The
remnants of Mario are forecast to become absorbed within a broader
circulation to the southwest during the next couple of days.

For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董 林  2025 年 09 月 13 日 18 时
“马里奥”减弱为热带低压

“马里奥”于今天（13日）下午（北京时）在东北太平洋减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

（这是关于“马里奥”的最后一期监测公报）