菲律宾以东2525号强热带风暴“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 数值支持发展

Bunn

JMA +24 TD

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ABPW10 PGTW 310100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/310100ZOCT2025-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

eoj329

(更新一點訊息)
今早00時，平平無奇的路徑。
橫過南海中南部應是"前後腳"系統，但總體上路徑變數並不大。
制圖方式"簡單、粗暴、直接"，勝在代碼簡單~

Ck.

eoj329 发表于 2025-10-31 16:43
今早00時，平平無奇的路徑。

依旧副高引导稳稳进南海

Ragasa

fy6

TXPQ21 KNES 312357
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 8.9N
D. 138.8E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
31/2051Z 9.0N 139.0E SSMIS
...KONON=

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010200Z-010600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZNOV25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM EAST
OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND THE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A
312304Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED
BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 98W
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL
CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
NNNN

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 010254
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF YAP)
B. 01/0230Z
C. 9.49N
D. 138.56E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .20 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW

fy6

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 9.4N 139.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 139.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY
STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.=