TCFA - 关岛以南90W - 9.2N 145.0E - 趋向菲东，数值看好强度 - JMA:GW

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031930Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZNOV2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03NOV25 1200Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.6N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A
031652Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED CELLS OF CONVECTION EASTERN QUADRANT. A
031127Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A
SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY THAT PRESENTS ITSELF
MORE AS STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 05-10 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NEXT 24
HOURS AS WELL AS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE EURO MODEL IS SLIGHTLY
DELAYED ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE WITH CONSOLIDATION TAKING PLACE IN
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 031930)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

fy6

TPPN11 PGTW 040001
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (S OF GUAM)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 8.86N
D. 144.96E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HUYNH

hei

有沒有第十四個風球就看今次了

桑美和伊欧凯

步幅没有海鸥快，后期扑朔迷离

fy6

TPPN11 PGTW 040301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SW OF GUAM)
B. 04/0230Z
C. 9.15N
D. 142.83E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER