斯里兰卡气旋风暴“迪特瓦”(05B.Ditwah) - 逐渐北上，将影响斯里兰卡及印度东岸

pocketbox

WTIO32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 7.6N 81.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 81.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 8.4N 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 9.1N 80.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 10.0N 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 10.8N 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 12.3N 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 13.8N 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 14.8N 81.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 81.6E.
27NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
271200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z
AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO32 PGTW 271500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH)     
   
4. WARNING NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 7.6N 81.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 980 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
    
18. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
    
19. AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271047Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
    
21. CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A
    
22. BROAD, WEAK LLCC. MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD
    
23. CIRCULATION AND GENERALLY SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION OVERLAND. THE
    
24. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR
    
25. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
26. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
27. SHEAR OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
    
28. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
33. POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 271200Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 271100Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 271047Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 271200Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
58. SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR
    
59. BUILDING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, TC 05B IS
    
60. EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
    
61. THE LOW-LEVEL STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. DUE TO THE TRACK ALONG
    
62. THE COAST OF SRI LANKA AND JUST EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA, THE
    
63. SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
    
64. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLIES
    
65. AND STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
    
66. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDIA. THE
    
67. SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 96 UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
    
68. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
    
71. THE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
    
72. THE TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE 270600Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS SHOW
    
73. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
    
74. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK EAST
    
75. OF THE SOUTHEAST INDIA COAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
    
76. GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
    
77. CONFIDENCE.
    
78. 
    
79. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
80.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
81.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
82.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
83.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
84. NNNN

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[code][/code]

Ragasa

WTIO32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 7.9N 81.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 81.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 8.5N 81.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 9.0N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 9.9N 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 10.8N 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 12.6N 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 13.8N 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 81.2E.
27NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 972
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO32 PGTW 272100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR
   
4. 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 7.9N 81.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 972 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 05B (DITWAH) AND ITS BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH WIND
    
19. FIELD EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THE PERIMETER OF SRI LANKA. THE LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
    
21. LAND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, UTILIZING ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED
    
22. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP, AS WELL AS WIND SHIFT OBSERVED AT THE
    
23. BATTICALOA STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS, AS WELL AS THE
    
24. WIND RADII ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 261634Z METOP-
    
25. C AND A 261551Z METOP-B ASCAT PASSES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS  
    
26. MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
    
27. KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
    
28. INTERACTION.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 261634Z METOP-C AND A 261551Z METOP-B
    
31. ASCAT PASSES
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
37.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 271800Z
    
38. 
    
39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
40.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
41.    SST: OVER LAND
    
42.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
43. 
    
44. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
45.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
46.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
48. 
    
49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
50. 
    
51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
52. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
53. 
    
54. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DITWAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
55. NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO THE
    
56. EAST. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
    
57. UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY ALONG THE
    
58. TRANSIT. AFTER THAT, POSITIVE IMPACTS OF WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    
59. TEMPERATURES (SST) AND REDUCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL BE OFFSET BY
    
60. INCREASING SOUTHERLY VWS, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND
    
61. AND DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
    
62. FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN
    
63. PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
    
64. CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THE COMPLETION OF THE TURN.
    
65. 
    
66. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
67. AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THE FORECAST IS
    
68. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
    
69. THE TRACK OVER SRI LANKA. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 12 IS
    
70. APPROXIMATELY 90 NM. ONCE THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER, GUIDANCE
    
71. BECOMES TIGHTER, AS WITNESSED BY THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REDUCED TO 70
    
72. NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
    
73. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME. THE
    
74. MAJOR OUTLIER IS NAVGEM DRIVEN COAMPS-TC WHICH DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING
    
75. TO A PEAK OF 50-55 KTS, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER. OTHER MODELS
    
76. DEPICT ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR A 5 KTS INCREASE, WHILE HOVERING AROUND
    
77. 25-35 KTS. AS SUCH, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
78. CONFIDENCE.
    
79. 
    
80. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
81.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
82.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
83.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
84.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
85. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTIO32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 8.1N 81.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 81.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 8.6N 80.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 9.4N 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 10.3N 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 11.2N 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 81.1E.
28NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 966
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO32 PGTW 280300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR
   
4. 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 8.1N 81.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 966 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 05B (DITWAH) AS IT TRANSITS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
    
19. ALONG THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SRI LANKA. THE
    
20. CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD, WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
    
21. WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WIND FIELD
    
22. IS STILL EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THE PERIMETER OF SRI LANKA. THE INITIAL
    
23. POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE UTILIZING ANIMATED
    
24. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
    
25. 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE
    
26. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
27. REVEALS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL
    
28. OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
    
29. BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LANDFALL INTERACTION.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
37.    CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 280033Z
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 280100Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
41.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
53. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DITWAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
56. POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
    
57. CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
    
58. UNTIL TAU 24, WHILE SUSTAINING INTENSITY ALONG THE TRANSIT. AFTER
    
59. THAT, POSITIVE IMPACTS OF WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
60. (SST) AND REDUCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
    
61. SOUTHERLY VWS, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND AND
    
62. DISSIPATION OVER WATER BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48.
    
63. 
    
64. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
65. AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE POLEWARD TRACK. THE CROSS-TRACK GUIDANCE
    
66. DISPERSION AT TAU 12 IS 65 NM AND EXPANDS TO 90 NM BY THE END OF THE
    
67. FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
    
68. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME AND
    
69. DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. THE MAJOR OUTLIER REMAINS NAVGEM
    
70. DRIVEN COAMPS-TC WHICH DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS,
    
71. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER. AS SUCH, JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY
    
72. FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
73. 
    
74. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
75.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
76.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
77. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：张玲  2025 年 11 月 28 日 10 时
“迪特瓦”生成并向北偏西方向移动

时  间: 28日08时（北京时）

海  域: 北印度洋

命  名: “迪特瓦”，DITWAH

中心位置:  北纬8.1度，东经81.1度

强度等级:  气旋风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 1004百帕

参考位置: 距离北印度洋印度金奈偏南方向约560公里

变化过程:  “迪特瓦”过去12小时维持8级

预报结论: “迪特瓦”将以每小时8公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度变化不大



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月28日08时00分）





图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“迪特瓦”未来96小时路径预报图

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ygsj24

WTIO32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 8.3N 81.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 81.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 9.0N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 9.8N 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 10.7N 80.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 11.6N 80.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 81.0E.
28NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 958
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO32 PGTW 280900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH)     
   
4. WARNING NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 8.3N 81.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 958 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD OVER THE
    
18. NORTHEASTERN REGION OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    
19. IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC), WITH SPIRAL BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER
    
21. WATER. A 280150Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE
    
22. FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NO ORGANIZED OR DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT. LIMITED
    
23. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BROAD CIRCULATION BUT ARE SUSTAINED AT
    
24. LESS THAN 10 KNOTS REFLECTING THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LLCC. ALTHOUGH
    
25. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE OUTER BANDING,
    
26. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUE TO SERIOUSLY
    
27. HINDER CORE DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
28. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
29. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAK STRUCTURE
    
30. AND VERY LIMITED CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
    
35. TO THE EAST
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 280151Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 280600Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
43.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
46.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
    
59. PERIOD SKIRTING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL
    
60. MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO PERSISTENT FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR
    
61. ENTRAINMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 48
    
62. WHEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
    
63. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  
    
64. 
    
65. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
    
66. SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 280000Z
    
67. GEFS AND EPS RUNS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE
    
68. SOLUTIONS OVER WATER. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
69. INDICATES STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
72.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
73.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
74. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：张玲  2025 年 11 月 28 日 18 时
“迪特瓦”向北偏西方向移动

时  间: 28日14时（北京时）

海  域: 北印度洋

命  名: “迪特瓦”，DITWAH

中心位置:  北纬8.3度，东经81.0度

强度等级:  气旋风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 1003百帕

参考位置: 距离北印度洋斯里兰卡贾夫纳东南方向约160公里

变化过程:  “迪特瓦”过去24小时维持8级

预报结论: “迪特瓦”将以每小时8公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度变化不大



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月28日14时00分）





图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“迪特瓦”未来72小时路径预报图