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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-1 23:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.9S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.6S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 108.6E.
01JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 011500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR
- 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 108.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 605 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
- AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
- OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CDO HAS BEEN
- ABLE TO PERSIST OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS
- WARMED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN THE
- EIR LOOP, SUGGESTIVE OF A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER, FAIRLY
- ALIGNED VERTICALLY WITH THE LLCC. A 011146Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
- TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY HOWEVER, WITH THE 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A
- WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTION
- ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTER. BY ITSELF THIS WOULD BE
- FAIRLY CONCLUSIVE, BUT WHEN THE 37GHZ IMAGE LOOKS NOTHING LIKE THE
- 91GHZ IMAGE AND SUGGESTS A LLCC FURTHER NORTH, WHILE NEITHER LINES
- UP WELL WITH THE EIR LOOP. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS GENERALLY SUPPORT
- THE FACT THAT THE VORTEX REMAINS SOMEWHAT TILTED, SOUTHWARD WITH
- HEIGHT, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATE OF
- ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM THE NORTH. WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES
- AND CONFLICTING INFORMATION IN MIND, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AVAILABLE
- OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS,
- DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER BORNEO.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 010910Z
- CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 011210Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 011210Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 010816Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 011210Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: LOW
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: INDEPENDENT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
- INITIAL POSITION, TC 11S HAS CONTINUED ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
- TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE ONLY QUESTION BEING HOW QUICKLY
- HAS IT MOVED DOWN THE TRACK. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE TRACK
- CURRENTLY IS THE NER OVER SOUTHWESTERN BORNEO. TC 11S WILL RAPIDLY
- DECELERATE AFTER TAU 12 AS THE NER SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS LEARMONTH.
- TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW (03 KNOTS OR LESS) BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36,
- AS THE SYSTEM REACHES AND INFLECTION POINT AND TURNS SHARPLY
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. NEAR-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES WILL
- PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY TWO FACTORS. FIRST, THE VORTEX NEEDS TO
- ALIGN BEFORE THE SYSTEM CAN INTENSIFY MUCH BEYOND ITS CURRENT
- LEVEL. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT
- 12 HOURS UNDER CONTINUING FAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE SECOND
- FACTOR WILL BE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
- EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PROVIDING
- THE SYSTEM WILL SOME ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE DELAY
- IN VORTEX ALIGNMENT MEANS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS FLEETING, 24
- HOURS AT BEST. BEGINNING AT TAU 24, THE TROF PASSES TO THE EAST OF
- TC 11S, AND WILL INTRODUCE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR
- AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE VORTEX WILL RAPIDLY DECOUPLE DUE TO THE
- SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS THE VORTEX
- SHALLOWS, THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
- LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO
- DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AND LIKELY AS
- EARLY AS TAU 60.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
- SCENARIO. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE SLOWING SOUTHEASTWARD
- TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, AND THE SYSTEM REACHING AN INFLECTION POINT
- BY TAU 24. SIMILAR TO THE LAST MODEL RUN, THE GFS IS SITUATED ON
- THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF ON THE WEST, WITH
- A 115NM SPREAD AT TAU 24. ALL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, THEN ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM
- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- CROSS-TRACK SPEAD REMAINS 100NM OR LESS THROUGH TAU 72, THOUGH
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 300NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST,
- BETWEEN THE FAST ECMWF AND SLOW GFS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- POSITIONED NEAR THE AI MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
- GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS COME DOWN OVERALL AS
- COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE HWRF IS THE SOLE OUTLIER
- INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY ABOVE 50 KNOTS, PEAKING AT ABOUT 57
- KNOTS, WHILE ALL OF THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED
- AROUND A 45-50 KNOT PEAK AT TAU 12 TO 24 FOLLOWED BY A STEADY
- WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST
- IS PLACED NEAR THE HWRF THROUGH TAU 24, THEN JOINS THE MEAN THROUGH
- THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-1 14:40
