迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai)

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 110637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 76.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/11 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/12 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND PATTERN
WRAPPING THE WHOLE WAY ROUND WITH CONTINUED INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER LOCATED AT THE HEAD OF THE CURVED BAND.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A MET OF 3.0, ADJUSTED TO 3.5 BY
THE PT, IN LINE WITH A DT OF 3.5. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW ASCAT DATA
THIS MORNING, THE INTENSITY WAS RISEN TO 45KT AT 06UTC, BUT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED, PARTICULARLY IN RELATION TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE.
IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S PAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS,
ESTIMATED AT 35KT ON SATURDAY AT 18UTC AND 40KT AT 00UTC (DVORAK
ANALYSIS REVISED UP TO 3.0 AT 00UTC), TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SATURDAY
EVENING'S ASCAT DATA WHICH ALREADY INDICATED AT LEAST 35-40KT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EAST UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN BY
THE MONSOON FLOW AND THEN BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. AROUND TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AT
HIGHER ALTITUDES AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES STEERED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS
NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL) FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BY MONDAY, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY AND
COULD APPROACH OR MAYBE REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. FROM
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND, SLOW AT FIRST, BUT POSSIBLY FASTER FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 77.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 77.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 15.7S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.4S 78.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 16.9S 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 17.4S 78.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.9S 77.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.9S 75.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.5S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 77.2E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 110900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.0S 77.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 543 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING
    
19. INTO THE CENTER OF A HIGHLY COMPACT CIRCULATION. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO
    
20. BE IMPROVING, WITH DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS NOW EXPANDING OUTWARD
    
21. IN THE WESTWARD DIRECTION FROM THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
22. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI. THE
    
23. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
24. BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
25. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
    
26. CONTINUES TO BE PLACED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
    
27. BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
28. SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGING
    
33. COMPLEX TO THE EAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 110600Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 110600Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 110727Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 61 KTS AT 110600Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INCREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 85
    
57. KTS. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
60. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24, THE RIDGING COMPLEX TO
    
61. THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT RIDGES. THERE WILL
    
62. END UP BEING A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A
    
63. SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR
    
64. TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM,
    
65. CAUSING 14S TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. NEAR
    
66. TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF 14S,
    
67. CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW-LEVEL
    
68. STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH
    
69. OF THE SYSTEM, FURTHER SUPPORTING A WESTWARD TRACK. REGARDING
    
70. INTENSITY, 14S IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
    
71. HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
    
72. FORECAST TO BE AROUND 85 KTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE WESTWARD
    
73. TURN. HOWEVER, THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
    
74. ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH THIS TIME, AND
    
75. THEREFORE, AN EVEN HIGHER PEAK. NEAR TAU 48, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
    
76. EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING 14S TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
    
77. OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
80. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BESIDES TWO EXTREME
    
81. OUTLIERS IN GALWEM AND UKMET. THESE MODELS STALL THE SYSTEM IN
    
82. PLACE AFTER TAU 48, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE COMMENCES THE
    
83. WESTWARD TURN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO OUTLIERS, GUIDANCE
    
84. AGREES ON THE GENERAL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE
    
85. SHARPNESS AND QUICKNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. NAVGEM TAKES THE
    
86. SHARPEST TURN WHILE GFS TAKES THE WIDEST TURN. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
    
87. AT TAU 72 IS AROUND 110 NM, WHICH OPENS UP TO 190 NM AT TAU 120.
    
88. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE THE MODIFIED CONSENSUS
    
89. (TAKING OUT THE TWO OUTLIERS) WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
90. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPLIT WITH COAMPS-TC AND GFS SHOW
    
91. ONLY MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. ON THE OTHER HAND,
    
92. THE REST OF GUIDANCE CALLS FOR RAPID OR NEAR-RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
93. THROUGH TAU 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
    
94. HAFS-A WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE PEAK
    
95. INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
99.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
101.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
102. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 11 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 11日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬14.9度，东经76.8度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 993百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2110公里

变化过程: “杜扎伊”过去6小时由8级加强到9级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时11公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月11日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 111232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/12 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE PATTERN,
FIRST APPEARING IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A BIT LATER IN INFRARED,
SHORTLY BEFORE 12UTC. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4.0 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MET IS AT 3.5, ADJUSTED TO 4.0
BY THE PT. THE FINAL T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PT. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES (GPM-GMI AT 0733Z, NOAA21-ATMS AT 0815Z AND NPP-ATMS AT 0845Z)
SHOW THIS IMPROVING STRUCTURE BUT DISPLAY A STILL POORLY FORMED AND
PARTIALLY OPEN EYE FEATURE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, DMINT,
SATCON) ARE AROUND 55 TO 60KT (1-MIN WINDS). THE RSMC'S ANALYSIS
MAKES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS INPUTS, WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 55KT AT 12UTC. NOTE THAT THE TRANSITION FROM THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN TO THE EYE FEATURE HAS CAUSED A TROCHOIDAL SOUTHWARD
MOTION OF DUDZAI'S CENTER, MAKING IT MOVE MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE OR LESS TEMPORARY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EAST THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST. AROUND TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING
THE WESTWARD TURN AND THEN ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS (LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MODELS. FROM WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANT AT THE END OF THE WEEK: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN LINE WITH A GROWING NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGESTING
LESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 77.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND PATTERN,
EVEN LOOKING LIKE A RAGGED EYE. BUT THE NOTABLE FEATURE IS THE
STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION, WITH VERY COLD PEAKS DISPOSED ALMOST
SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, A EVACUATION CHANNEL ON
THE POLAR SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SATELLITE IMAGES,
UNDERLINING AN EFFICIENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE OCCASIONAL
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT
POSSIBLE TO POSITION THE CENTER. IN TERMS OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE DT
IS 4.5 AND THE MET IS 3.5, ADJUSTED TO 4.0 BY THE PT. THE FINAL T
NUMBER IS A COMPROMISE AT 4.5-. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WERE NOT USED AS
THEY WERE CONSIDERED TOO WEAK. THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED VALUE
CHOSEN IS THEREFORE 65KT AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN
BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST. AROUND
TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT WILL
BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THE WESTWARD TURN
AND THEN ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS (LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). DUDZAI SHOULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD REACH INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
MODELS. FROM WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANT AT THE END OF THE WEEK: THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN LINE WITH A GROWING
NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGESTING LESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 77.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 77.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 16.8S 78.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 17.0S 78.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.4S 76.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.6S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.2S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 77.5E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 112100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 77.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 607 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 14S STRUGGLING TO FORM A RAGGED EYE WITH FLARING COLD
    
19. CLOUD TOPS ATTEMPTING TO WRAP AROUND THE AXIS OF ROTATION. THE
    
20. SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY COMPACT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
    
21. ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT,
    
22. CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
    
23. (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
24. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURED IN ANIMATED EIR.
    
25. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
27. LISTED BELOW.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
    
32. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
36.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
37.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 111800Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 111700Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 111800Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
45.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S (DUDZAI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
    
59. TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
    
60. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING STR TO ITS NORTHEAST.
    
61. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH 14S STALLING
    
62. AROUND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24-48, 14S WILL ENTER INTO A COMPETING
    
63. STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY THE LARGER STR TO THE
    
64. NORTHEAST AND A SMALLER STR TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE
    
65. SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY
    
66. TAU 48. ERRATIC MOTION NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK MAY OCCUR
    
67. WHILE 14S IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND TRANSITIONING STEERING INFLUENCES.
    
68. THE STR WILL CAUSE 14S TO CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. BEGINNING AROUND
    
69. TAU 72, DUDZAI WILL TRANSITION STEERING RIDGES FOR THE FINAL TIME, AS
    
70. A RIDGE TO THE STORM'S SOUTHWEST BUILDS. DUDZAI WILL TRACK WEST-
    
71. SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FOR THE
    
72. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS
    
73. FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK
    
74. INTENSITY OF 95 KTS; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
75. REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY. A PEAK INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 95 KTS IS
    
76. LIKELY SHOULD 14S UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DUDZAI IS FORECAST TO
    
77. APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY BETWEEN 75-80 KTS THROUGH TAU 120.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
80. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF
    
81. 14S TRANSITIONING STEERING RIDGES AROUND THIS TIME, THOUGH ALL
    
82. MODELS AGREE ON A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. AS A RESULT,
    
83. THE JTWC NEAR-TERM FORECAST FROM TAU 0-72 IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
84. CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FROM TAU 36 THROUGH
    
85. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AI MODELS, COAMPS-TC, AND GALWEM
    
86. ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS OF THE MODEL FIELD, INDICATING A SHARP
    
87. WESTWARD TURN FOLLOWING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD AND MAINTAINING
    
88. A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. GFS, ECMWF, HAFS-A, AND THE
    
89. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICT A BROAD WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48 AND
    
90. A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL
    
91. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEPICT A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
    
92. AROUND TAU 96-120, INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT DUDZAI WILL
    
93. CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
    
94. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
95. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.
    
96. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 14S WILL
    
97. CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MULTIPLE RAPID
    
98. INTENSIFICATION AIDS REACHING CRITERIA. FOLLOWING TAU 24, MESOSCALE
    
99. MODELS DEPICT A BRIEF WEAKING TREND FROM TAU 24 TO AROUND TAU 60,
    
100. FOLLOWED BY A REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. GLOBAL INTENSITY
     
101. AIDS DEPICT DUDZAI TERMINALLY WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24. AS
     
102. A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
     
103. INTENSIFICATION, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
     
104. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
     
105. LATER FORECAST TAUS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
     
106. LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.
     
107. 
     
108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
109.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
112.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
113. NNNN

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