TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

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JTWC 00Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 130005
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALENDONIA)
B. 12/2330Z
C. 19.45S
D. 160.27E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 130301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/0230Z
C. 19.05S
D. 160.42E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.2S 160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 389 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST. A 122242Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 130612
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/0530Z
C. 20.44S
D. 160.22E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   13/0127Z  19.57S  160.18E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

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pocketbox 发表于 2026-1-13 13:50
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL  ...

JTWC评级图中出现了一处笔误，14S的英文名“DUDZAI”打成了“DUSZAI”

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 130759 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.

********************************************************************

A TROPICAL LOW WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.3S 160.2E AT 130600UTC. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

pocketbox

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low (14U) is developing west of New Caledonia. High chance of developing into a tropical cyclone early next week.

• A tropical low (14U) lies to the west of New Caledonia.
• There is a Low chance that 14U will develop into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate chance from Friday and a High chance from Monday.
• 14U is likely to remain east of the Australian region and well to the east of the Australian mainland.
• Over the weekend, the system may take a track to the southeast and move closer to Norfolk Island mid next week. However, there does remains uncertainty in the track and development early next week.
• Residents on Norfolk Island should monitor forecasts for updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:19 am UTC

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Tropical Low 14U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 130905
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF CALEDONIA)
B. 13/0830Z
C. 20.54S
D. 159.97E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 131211
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/1130Z
C. 20.63S
D. 159.91E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
MET YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 131454
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/1430Z
C. 20.46S
D. 159.99E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER