‌新喀里多尼亚以西热带低压06F(16P)

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(1) WITH 04W FINAL
WARNING INFORMATION.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析T1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 202134
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/2030Z
C. 16.33S
D. 158.28E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0 PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 159.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 159.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 20.6S 163.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 23.1S 167.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.1S 172.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.2S 176.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.4S 179.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 160.1E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
482 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 210300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 159.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 482 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P HAS UNDERGONE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
    
18. COURSE OF THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    
19. IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT BY 210000Z, THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DECOUPLED FROM UNDER A CANOPY OF DEEP
    
21. CONVECTION. AN ACCOMPANYING 202113Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 35-37 KNOT
    
22. WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS EMBEDDED
    
23. WITHIN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO INVEST 94P AND NORTHWEST TO
    
24. INVEST 90P. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
25. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    
26. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS NOTED ABOVE AND
    
27. CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
28. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
    
29. SOUTHEASTERLY VWS, WARM SSTS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR FIJI.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
53. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
56. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR OVER
    
57. THE 24 TO 36 HOURS, BEFORE STARTING A GRADUAL TURN EASTWARD AS IT
    
58. ROUNDS THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
    
59. TO THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. MESOSCALE VARIATIONS IN THE
    
60. FORECASTED POSITION OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A DIRECT STRIKE ON
    
61. THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN TERMS
    
62. OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ATTAIN A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS
    
63. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND THEN WEAKENING
    
64. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF TC 16P DOES IN FACT
    
65. MAKE LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
    
66. THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION. ASSUMING A
    
67. CLOSE APPROACH BUT NO LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE
    
68. TO INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING
    
69. BY TAU 72 AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF TONGA.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
    
72. (AI) GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST,
    
73. WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD UNTIL TAU 72, WHEN THE GUIDANCE
    
74. DIVERGES AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT AND DISSIPATES. CONSISTENT
    
75. WITH AN ACCELERATING POLEWARD TRACK, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
    
76. EARLY-ON IN THE FORECAST, GROWING TO 220NM BY THE END OF THE
    
77. FORECAST, BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND GEFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE
    
78. JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE GFS-GEFS TRACKERS THROUGH
    
79. THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
    
80. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
    
81. LEVELING OFF AND SLOWLY WEAKENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHIPS
    
82. (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) WHICH STEADILY INCREASE THE INTENSITY ALL THE
    
83. WAY THROUGH TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HWRF AND
    
84. COAMPS-TC TRACKERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
85. 
    
86. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
87.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
88.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
89. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析T1.0，JTWC分析升至T2.5，随后升格16P

TXPS27 KNES 202359
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  20/2330Z
C.  17.3S
D.  158.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

TPPS10 PGTW 210021
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/2330Z
C. 17.37S
D. 159.00E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO
DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 210325
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/0300Z
C. 18.21S
D. 160.25E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 13NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

iam最小值

这系统突然升格16P，甚至连BOM这么喜欢编扰动号的机构都没有对它编号。

Ragasa

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 210650 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [994HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
161.2E AT 210600UTC. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.

WITHIN 080 TO 160 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD06F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

AREAS OF GALE MOVING WITH THE DRPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

---

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 210754 UTC.

*****************CORRECTION*******************

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [994HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
161.2E AT 210600UTC. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.

WITHIN 080 TO 160 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD06F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

AREAS OF GALE MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 161.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 161.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 21.9S 164.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 24.0S 169.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 25.2S 173.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 25.6S 177.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 25.6S 176.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 162.0E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
334 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 210900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.1S 161.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 334 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
    
13. CALEDONIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A WELL-DEFINED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED EXPOSED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. BURSTS OF
    
21. CONVECTION HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY FLARING ALONG THE WESTERN
    
22. SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 210310Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE
    
23. IMAGE REVEALED CURVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE
    
24. CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
25. ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
26. OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE
    
27. FROM EARLIER ASCAT IMAGERY AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
    
28. BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 16P IS IN A MARGINALLY
    
29. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
30. ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
    
31. WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
34. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR FIJI.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 210610Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 210610Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 210233Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 210610Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
63. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
    
64. TAU 24. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 16P STAYING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
    
65. CALEDONIA, BUT ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD ALLOW FOR
    
66. A DIRECT LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO
    
67. BECOME MORE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO
    
68. TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. REGARDING
    
69. INTENSITY, 16P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12
    
70. UNDER SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THE SYSTEM MANAGES
    
71. TO INTERACT MORE WITH NEW CALEDONIA, THEN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING
    
72. TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. AFTER TAU 12, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
    
73. MODERATE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS
    
74. FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENGULFED BY
    
75. DRY AIR.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
78. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
    
79. OUTLIERS PRESENT. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS AROUND 120 NM,
    
80. WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
    
81. NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    
82. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12-24 BEFORE
    
83. GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
84. CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR OUTLIER, AND CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
    
85. AFTER TAU 24 RATHER THAN WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
86. PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A AND HWRF MODELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
90.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
91. NNNN

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pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 210819 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [994HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
161.2E AT 210600UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

*********************************************************************
***************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.5，SSD分析升至T1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 210624
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/0530Z
C. 18.98S
D. 161.02E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 27NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

TXPS27 KNES 210624
TCSWSP
A.  16P (NONAME)
B.  21/0530Z
C.  19.0S
D.  160.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...A LLCC LOCATED LESS THAN 1/2 A DEGREE FROM THE EDGE OF
CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS
BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN T-NUMBER
TO 0.5 IN SIX HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE