TCFA - 爪哇岛以南热带低压16U(91S)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 212357
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 11.74S
D. 119.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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WTXS21 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3S 118.9E TO 15.0S 121.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 118.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.7S 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY
444 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212154Z 89GHZ MWI MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION AS WELL
AS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230300Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 220258
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 11.92S
D. 118.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:42 pm WST on Thursday 22 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low (16U) has a high risk of developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga, including Broome and Derby.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South 118.7 degrees East, estimated to be 720 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 750 kilometres northwest of Derby.

Movement: southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low (16U) lies over waters to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast today and on Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U is expected to reach tropical cyclone strength overnight Friday or early Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday as a category 1 system. During Sunday, 16U is forecast to track through the Kimberley as a tropical low.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Mitchell Plateau to Broome from late Friday or early Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Tides between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kalumburu on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 22	tropical low	12.5S	118.7E	55
+6hr	8 pm January 22	tropical low	12.8S	118.9E	75
+12hr	2 am January 23	tropical low	13.2S	119.2E	95
+18hr	8 am January 23	tropical low	13.8S	119.7E	125
+24hr	2 pm January 23	tropical low	14.3S	120.2E	135
+36hr	2 am January 24	1	15.5S	121.7E	160
+48hr	2 pm January 24	1	16.6S	123.1E	175
+60hr	2 am January 25	tropical low	17.3S	124.0E	205
+72hr	2 pm January 25	tropical low	18.1S	124.0E	225

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 220542
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 22/0530Z
C. 12.67S
D. 118.41E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 220845
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 22/0830Z
C. 12.78S
D. 118.35E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Thursday 22 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low (16U) has a high risk of developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau, including Broome and Derby.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 118.4 degrees East, estimated to be 710 kilometres northwest of Broome and 760 kilometres northwest of Derby.

Movement: south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low (16U) is currently located to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast overnight and during Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U may reach tropical cyclone strength late Friday but more likely early Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday. During Sunday, 16U is forecast to track southwards through the Kimberley as a tropical low.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop about coastal parts between Cockatoo Island and Beagle Bay as the system centre approaches on Saturday if the system intensifies to category 2.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay from late Friday or early Saturday morning and may extend west to Mitchell Plateau and south to Broome during Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Tides between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kalumburu on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Friday 23 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm January 22	tropical low	12.7S	118.4E	85
+6hr	2 am January 23	tropical low	13.0S	118.6E	105
+12hr	8 am January 23	tropical low	13.5S	119.2E	125
+18hr	2 pm January 23	tropical low	14.2S	120.0E	140
+24hr	8 pm January 23	tropical low	15.1S	120.9E	145
+36hr	8 am January 24	2	16.3S	122.5E	165
+48hr	8 pm January 24	1	17.3S	123.6E	180
+60hr	8 am January 25	tropical low	18.1S	124.0E	180
+72hr	8 pm January 25	tropical low	19.1S	123.8E	200

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析T1.0/1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 221258
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 22/1130Z
C. 12.73S
D. 118.54E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0/1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 221448
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 22/1430Z
C. 12.19S
D. 118.42E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
YIELD 1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1248Z  12.33S  118.25E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:49 pm WST on Thursday 22 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low (16U) has a high risk of developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau, including Broome and Derby.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 118.4 degrees East, estimated to be 710 kilometres northwest of Broome and 760 kilometres northwest of Derby.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Low (16U) is currently located to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast overnight and during Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U may reach tropical cyclone strength late Friday but more likely early Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday. During Sunday, 16U is forecast to track southwards through the Kimberley as a tropical low.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop about coastal parts between Cockatoo Island and Beagle Bay as the system centre approaches on Saturday if the system intensifies to category 2.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay from late Friday or early Saturday morning and may extend west to Mitchell Plateau and south to Broome during Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Elsewhere between between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kalumburu on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday 23 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm January 22	tropical low	12.7S	118.4E	85
+6hr	5 am January 23	tropical low	13.1S	118.8E	105
+12hr	11 am January 23	tropical low	13.7S	119.5E	125
+18hr	5 pm January 23	tropical low	14.5S	120.3E	135
+24hr	11 pm January 23	tropical low	15.3S	121.2E	140
+36hr	11 am January 24	2	16.4S	122.6E	160
+48hr	11 pm January 24	1	17.3S	123.7E	190
+60hr	11 am January 25	tropical low	18.2S	123.8E	215
+72hr	11 pm January 25	tropical low	19.3S	123.5E	235