TCFA - 莫桑比克海峡热带低压第9号(97S) - 15.5S 42.4E - 将东行穿过马达加斯加

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WTIO30 FMEE 290704
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2026/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 41.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/29 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100

24H: 2026/01/30 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

36H: 2026/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/31 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 150

72H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100

120H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTRE WITH INCREASED CURVATURE. A CURVED CLOUD PATTERN IS
THEREFORE GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE. AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
1.5 CAN THEREFORE BE ESTABLISHED FROM THIS ANALYSIS TIME. THE 1825Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHAPE AND CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTRE
REMAINS STATIONARY FOR THE MOMENT. GIVEN ITS STILL ASYMMETRICAL
APPEARANCE, THE SYSTEM REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A DISTURBED AREA WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE DISTURBED AREA IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN
CONTRADICTORY FLOWS INDUCED BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHEAST, EXPLAINING ITS
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT, WHICH COULD CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY. THE
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA AND THE
PIVOTING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS WILL CAUSE
IT TO MOVE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. IT SHOULD THEN HEAD
TOWARDS THE MADAGASCAR COAST, WITH LANDING EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. IT SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND PASSING CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-WEST.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (WARM WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR). A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PUSH UP ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, CONTRIBUTING TO BETTER VORTICITY. THE CYCLOGENESIS
MECHANISM MAY CONTINUE AND AN INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY RAPID, WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY IS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM, AND OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY RESPONSIVE AI ENSEMBLES AND THE
AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES REMAINS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT
REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA ON FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY BETWEEN THE CITY OF MAHAJANGA IN THE NORTH AND
MAINTIRANO IN THE SOUTH (CAP SAINT-ANDRE REGION IN PARTICULAR)
- GUSTS VERY LIKELY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR ON FRIDAY EVENING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE LANDING ZONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY FROM THE END OF THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE ALONG THE TRACK.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY OR THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE
LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS10 PGTW 290913
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/0831Z
C. 15.58S
D. 43.10E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. REANALYZED
POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2026-1-29 14:30
WTIO30 FMEE 290704
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING ( ...

将斜穿马达加斯加，影响首都附近的机会较大

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WTXS21 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 41.7E TO 16.0S 45.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 42.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10
TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH QUICK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301230Z.//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 291310
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9

2.A POSITION 2026/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 42.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/30 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2026/01/30 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 150

72H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110

120H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTRE. THE CURVED CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STRENGTHENING WITH A VISIBLE EYE ON THE
1047Z GCOM-W 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. IN THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, THE NUMBER T HAS THEREFORE BEEN RAISED TO 2.0. TAKING THESE
ELEMENTS INTO ACCOUNT, THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY
FLOWS INDUCED BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHEAST, EXPLAINING ITS QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT, WHICH COULD CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY. THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA AND THE PIVOTING OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE IN AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. IT SHOULD THEN HEAD TOWARDS THE
MADAGASCAR COAST, WITH LANDING EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
PASSING CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-WEST. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (WARM WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR). A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PUSH UP ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED
FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTRIBUTING TO BETTER VORTICITY. THE
CYCLOGENESIS MECHANISM MAY CONTINUE AND AN INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY
RAPID, WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY IS THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM, AND OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY RESPONSIVE AI ENSEMBLES AND THE
AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES REMAINS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT
REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA BETWENN FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY BETWEEN THE CITY OF MAHAJANGA IN THE NORTH
AND MAINTIRANO IN THE SOUTH (CAP SAINT-ANDRE REGION IN PARTICULAR)
- GUSTS VERY LIKELY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR ON FRIDAY EVENING. VIOLENT
STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE LANDING ZONE. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY FROM THE END OF THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE ALONG THE TRACK.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY OR THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS10 PGTW 291226
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/1130Z
C. 16.08S
D. 42.26E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS10 PGTW 291437
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/1430Z
C. 16.21S
D. 42.08E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.6S 42.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NACALA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH QUICK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 291230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T2.5

TPXS10 PGTW 291755
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/1730Z
C. 15.54S
D. 42.48E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/1451Z  15.52S  43.25E  MMWI
   29/1544Z  15.55S  42.40E  GPMI
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

NRL显示已升格19S

19S NINETEEN 260129 1800 15.6S 42.5E SHEM 35 1001