设为首页收藏本站
切换到宽版

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
TY_Board论坛»论坛 › 台风特区 TY_Section › 台风预报 TY_Chat › 瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - ...
123456下一页
返回列表 发新帖
楼主: 大水台6

瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - 东南行进，南太26年首个命名气旋

[复制链接]
pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-26 17:15 | 显示全部楼层


WTNC18 NWBB 260859
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
Issued by NEW-CALEDONIA METSERVICE
at 2026-02-26 08:53 UTC
Name: tropical depression 98P-TD09F
Data at 2026-02-26 06:00 UTC
Latitude: 17.4 S
Longitude: 167.8 E
Location accuracy: within 30 nm
Movement toward: 140 degree
Speed of movement: 8 kt
Maximum 10-minutes wind: 25 kt
Maximum wind gust: 35 kt
Central pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of maximum winds: 90 nm

FORECAST DATA
Date (UTC):  Location(degree):  Accuracy(nm):  Max wind(kt)
26/02/26 06UTC:  18.0 S  168.1 E:  30:  30
26/02/26 12UTC:  18.5 S  168.1 E:  40:  35
26/02/26 18UTC:  18.9 S  168.1 E:  50:  40
27/02/26 00UTC:  19.4 S  168.5 E:  60:  45
27/02/26 06UTC:  19.7 S  168.9 E:  80:  45
27/02/26 12UTC:  20.1 S  169.7 E:  90:  50
27/02/26 18UTC:  20.4 S  170.8 E:  100:  55
28/02/26 00UTC:  20.6 S  171.5 E:  110:  55
28/02/26 06UTC:  21.2 S  173.2 E:  130:  55
28/02/26 12UTC:  21.8 S  174.8 E:  140:  50
28/02/26 18UTC:  23.1 S  176.4 E:  150:  48
01/03/26 00UTC:  24.7 S  178.6 E:  160:  48

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-26 22:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-26 22:30 编辑

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A01 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 261417 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 167.4E
AT 261200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP INTO
SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
SHEAR, MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.4 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 18.8S 167.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 19.7S 169.0E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.7S 170.9E MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 22.5S 173.8E MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND  262000UTC.


Time (UTC)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr12 pm February 26tropical low17.7S167.4E110
+6hr6 pm February 26tropical low18.3S167.5E140
+12hr12 am February 27118.8S167.9E165
+18hr6 am February 27119.3S168.3E195
+24hr12 pm February 27119.7S169.0E220
+36hr12 am February 28220.7S170.9E280
+48hr12 pm February 28222.5S173.8E345
+60hr12 am March 1125.2S177.5E430
+72hr12 pm March 1tropical low28.5S177.9W520

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-26 23:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2026-2-27 02:05 编辑



WTNC18 NWBB 261451
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
ISSUED BY NEW-CALEDONIA METSERVICE
AT 2026-02-26 14:26 UTC
NAME: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98P-TD09F
DATA AT 2026-02-26 12:00 UTC
LATITUDE: 17.7 S
LONGITUDE: 167.4 E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 40 NM
MOVEMENT TOWARD: 233 DEGREE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 5 KT
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTES WIND: 30 KT
MAXIMUM WIND GUST: 40 KT
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: X NM
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 90 NM

FORECAST DATA
DATE (UTC):  LOCATION(DEGREE):  ACCURACY(NM):  MAX WIND(KT)
26/02/26 12UTC:  18.5 S  167.5 E:  40:  30
26/02/26 18UTC:  18.9 S  167.8 E:  50:  35
27/02/26 00UTC:  19.3 S  168.2 E:  50:  40
27/02/26 06UTC:  19.6 S  168.8 E:  60:  45
27/02/26 12UTC:  20.0 S  169.8 E:  80:  50
27/02/26 18UTC:  20.4 S  170.6 E:  90:  55
28/02/26 00UTC:  20.7 S  171.5 E:  100:  55
28/02/26 06UTC:  21.1 S  172.7 E:  110:  55
28/02/26 12UTC:  21.9 S  174.5 E:  130:  55
28/02/26 18UTC:  22.9 S  176.0 E:  140:  50
01/03/26 00UTC:  24.3 S  178.0 E:  150:  50
01/03/26 06UTC:  25.8 S  179.8 W:  160:  45

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

Ragasa

12

主题

282

回帖

1410

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1410
发表于 2026-2-27 04:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Ragasa 于 2026-2-27 05:30 编辑



WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 167.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 167.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 18.9S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 19.5S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 20.4S 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 22.2S 175.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.4S 175.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 168.1E.
26FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
NNNN

  1. WDPS31 PGTW 262100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE)
  4. WARNING NR 001//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 167.9E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 38 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
  18. CYCLONE 23P WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
  19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
  20. SEMICIRCLE. A 261807Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED
  21. THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE
  22. ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
  23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
  24. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  25. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AGREEING ON T2.5 (35
  26. KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 23P IS IN A HIGHLY
  27. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
  28. ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
  29. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).

  31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  34. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER FIJI

  36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  38.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  39.    NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 261800Z

  42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  43.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

  52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  55. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

  57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 23P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
  58. ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU
  59. 48, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND REORIENT INTO A
  60. NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, FURTHER GUIDING THE VORTEX
  61. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 23P IS FORECAST TO
  62. STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
  63. WITH LOW SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST. THE PEAK
  64. INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 65 KTS, HOWEVER, THE
  65. SMALL INNER-CORE OF THE SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A MORE
  66. RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
  67. EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST
  68. WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PUT A CAP ON
  69. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. BY TAU 60, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
  70. TO BE NEAR 40 KTS, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO
  71. AROUND 55 KTS AT TAU 72.  SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) IS FORECAST TO
  72. BEGIN NEAR TAU 48 WITH COMPLETION NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AS THE VORTEX
  73. SHALLOWS, ELONGATES, AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
  74. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

  76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
  77. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
  78. OF 90 NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
  79. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
  80. AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE WEAKENING. RIDE (A
  81. RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID) HAS TRIGGERED THIS MODEL RUN, AND IS A
  82. MAJOR OUTLIER, SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY OF 105 KTS AT TAU 48. THE
  83. REST OF GUIDANCE IS SITUATED WITHIN A SMALL ENVELOPE OF 50-70 KTS
  84. AT TAU 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS
  85. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

  87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  88.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  89.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
  90. NNNN
复制代码

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
回复

举报

Ragasa

12

主题

282

回帖

1410

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1410
发表于 2026-2-27 04:00 | 显示全部楼层



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A02 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 261956 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 167.8E
AT 261800 UTC.  POSITION POOR FAIR ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS.

WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE OF TD09F, IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TO SOUTHWEST, EXPECT NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR,
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY.
SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.

WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN FAVOURABLE AREA FOR TC DEVELOPMENT,
THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH [AROUND 20S] COULD IMPACT THE
SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT QUICKLY.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.55 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 18.8S 167.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 19.7S 169.0E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.7S 170.9E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 22.5S 173.8E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND  270200UTC.

Time (UTC)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr6 pm February 26tropical low18.4S167.8E95
+6hr12 am February 27tropical low18.9S168.0E120
+12hr6 am February 27119.4S168.6E150
+18hr12 pm February 27119.9S169.1E175
+24hr6 pm February 27220.3S170.1E205
+36hr6 am February 28221.5S172.3E265
+48hr6 pm February 28223.6S175.5E325
+60hr6 am March 1126.6S179.6E410
+72hr6 pm March 1130.6S175.3W500

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-27 08:35 | 显示全部楼层
Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department, Port Vila at
6:39am VUT Friday 27 February 2026.

At 5:00am local time today, a tropical low (1000 hPa) was located near 18.4S 167.8E.  The tropical low is positioned
at the centre right of square letter H, number 9 (H,9) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 110 KM
south southwest of Efate.  The system is slow moving at 10 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours over the Vanuatu group is moderate to high.


Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 27 Feb)          18.9S, 168.0E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 27 Feb)           19.4S, 168.4E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 27 Feb)          19.8S, 168.8E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 28 Feb)           20.3S, 169.5E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 28 Feb)           21.4S, 171.3E            35 KTS (65 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 1 Mar)            23.0S, 173.8E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5pm, 1 Mar)            25.3S, 177.0E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5am, 2 Mar)            28.1S, 179.2W            30 KTS (75 KM/HR)

At this stage, the Tropical Low does not pose any significant threat to the islands of Vanuatu. However, isolated heavy
rainfalls and thunder are expected throughout Vanuatu. Possible flash floodings are expected over low-lying areas and
areas close to river banks, including coastal floodings. People throughout Vanuatu are advised to take extra precautions.
A strong wind warning is current for Central, Channel and the Southern Waters. See Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring the system and will issue the next information at
6:00pm this afternoon or earlier if the situation changes. People over central and southern Islands are advised to listen
to Radio Vanuatu and other radio outlets to get update information on this system.

This Information bulletin is also available on VMGD's website: wwww.vmgd.gov.vu and on its facebook page:
www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu. You can also call VMGD's free toll number 116 to get the same information.

The next information on the system will be issued in the next 12 hours/at 6:00pm today or earlier if the situation changes.  

Time (VUT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr5 am February 27tropical low18.4S167.8E95
+6hr11 am February 27tropical low18.9S168.0E120
+12hr5 pm February 27tropical low19.4S168.4E150
+18hr11 pm February 27tropical low19.8S168.8E175
+24hr5 am February 28tropical low20.3S169.5E205
+36hr5 pm February 28tropical low21.4S171.3E265
+48hr5 am March 1123.0S173.8E325
+60hr5 pm March 1125.3S177.0E410
+72hr5 am March 2tropical low28.1S179.2W500

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-27 09:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-27 09:55 编辑

Tropical Cyclone Naming Bulletin ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 270051
UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 167.8E AT 270000UTC HAS
BEEN NAMED URMIL.
STORM WARNING 010  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 270114 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6 SOUTH
167.8 EAST AT 270000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.6S 167.8E at 270000 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
280000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.5S 168.8E AT 271200 UTC
              AND NEAR 20.3S 170.6E AT 280000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 009.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A03 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 270152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 167.8E AT
270000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.  CYCLONE SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR,
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY.
SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.55 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=2.5, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH THAN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 19.5S 168.8E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.3S 170.6E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.8S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 24.4S 177.0E MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND  270800UTC.


Time (UTC)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr12 am February 27118.6S167.8E85
+6hr6 am February 27119.1S168.1E110
+12hr12 pm February 27119.5S168.8E140
+18hr6 pm February 27219.8S169.5E165
+24hr12 am February 28220.3S170.6E195
+36hr12 pm February 28221.8S173.3E255
+48hr12 am March 1124.4S177.0E315
+60hr12 pm March 1127.7S178.4W405
+72hr12 am March 2tropical low31.1S173.0W490

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-27 10:14 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-27 12:00 编辑



WTPS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 167.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 167.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 19.2S 168.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 19.9S 170.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 21.1S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 23.4S 176.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 31.6S 172.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 168.1E.
27FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDPS31 PGTW 270300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
  4. 002//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.6S 167.9E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 59 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
  13. VANUATU
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
  19. CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION
  20. THAT HAS STARTED TO ENCIRCLE THE ASSESSED CENTER. A 262257Z GMI 89
  21. GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A SMALL HOOK FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
  22. CORE OF THE SYSTEM, REVEALING THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
  23. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SHORT
  24. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE GMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS
  25. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
  26. AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
  27. INDICATES THAT 23P IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
  28. BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
  29. AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).

  31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  34. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER FIJI

  36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  37.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  38.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  39.    PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  40.    NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  41.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 270030Z
  42.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 270030Z
  43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 262301Z
  44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 270030Z

  46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

  56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INCREASED THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY,
  59. SHOWING A MUCH QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
  60. HOURS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

  62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 23P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
  63. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
  64. THROUGH TAU 48. 23P IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER TANNA
  65. ISLAND JUST AFTER TAU 12. NEAR TAU 48, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
  66. PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND REORIENT INTO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
  67. ORIENTATION, FURTHER GUIDING THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
  68. 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 23P IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER
  69. THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE HIGHLY
  70. COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AID IN THE RAPID OR
  71. NEAR-RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. NEAR TAU 24, DRY AIR
  72. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION RATE,
  73. THOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
  74. FAVORABLE. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 48 AT
  75. AROUND 80 KTS, HOWEVER, THAT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE
  76. SYSTEM IS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 24. IF THE COMPACT CORE OF
  77. CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST, THEN A HIGHER INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.
  78. AFTER TAU 48, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE
  79. AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL FURTHER ERODE THE
  80. SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION
  81. TREND. BY TAU 60, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50
  82. KTS, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 60
  83. KTS AT TAU 72.  SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
  84. NEAR TAU 48 WITH COMPLETION NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AS THE VORTEX
  85. SHALLOWS, ELONGATES, AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
  86. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

  88. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
  89. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
  90. OF 90 NM AT TAU 72. ALONG TRACK SPREAD DOES INCREASE AFTER TAU 48
  91. DUE TO THE DIFFERING INTERACTIONS WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
  92. WINDS. AT TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS MEASURED TO BE AROUND 220
  93. NM, SLIGHTLY DECREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72 POSITION.
  94. OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
  95. CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BECOME SPLIT
  96. BETWEEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS AND NON-RI AIDS. NEARLY ALL
  97. AVAILABLE RI AID HAS TRIGGERED THIS MODEL RUN AND THE AI-RI OUTPUT
  98. FROM CIMSS IS SHOWING A 43 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 55 KNOT INCREASE IN
  99. 48 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND, MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH LOWER
  100. PEAK, RANGING FROM 65-75 KTS AT TAU 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
  101. IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE RI AIDS THROUGH TAU 24, THEN ABOUT 10 KTS
  102. HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 80
  103. KTS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS THEN AGREE ON WEAKENING AFTER TAU
  104. 48.

  106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  108.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW//
  109. NNNN
复制代码

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-27 11:00 | 显示全部楼层


WTNC18 NWBB 270258
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
Issued by NEW-CALEDONIA METSERVICE
at 2026-02-27 02:47 UTC
Name: tropical cyclone category 1 URMIL
Data at 2026-02-27 00:00 UTC
Latitude: 18.6 S
Longitude: 167.9 E
Location accuracy: within 20 nm
Movement toward: 142 degree
Speed of movement: 5 kt
Maximum 10-minutes wind: 35 kt
Maximum wind gust: 50 kt
Central pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of maximum winds: 35 nm

FORECAST DATA
Date (UTC):  Location(degree):  Accuracy(nm):  Max wind(kt)
27/02/26 00UTC:  19.0 S  168.3 E:  30:  40
27/02/26 06UTC:  19.2 S  168.7 E:  40:  45
27/02/26 12UTC:  19.5 S  169.5 E:  50:  50
27/02/26 18UTC:  19.8 S  170.1 E:  60:  50
28/02/26 00UTC:  20.2 S  171.5 E:  80:  50
28/02/26 06UTC:  20.8 S  172.6 E:  90:  50
28/02/26 12UTC:  22.0 S  174.8 E:  100:  50
28/02/26 18UTC:  23.4 S  176.8 E:  110:  40
01/03/26 00UTC:  26.0 S  179.8 E:  130:  35
01/03/26 06UTC:  28.2 S  177.8 W:  140:  30
01/03/26 12UTC:  30.0 S  175.4 W:  150:  25
01/03/26 18UTC:  31.8 S  172.6 W:  160:  25

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

pocketbox

33

主题

7365

回帖

1万

积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
15289
发表于 2026-2-27 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
Advisory Number 1 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department,
Port Vila at 1:53pm VUT Friday 27 February 2026.

At 11:00am local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIL (990 hPa) Category 1 was located near 18.7S 168.2E.  
Tropical Cyclone URMIL is positioned at the center left of square letter I, number 9 (I,9) of the Vanuatu
tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 90 KM west of Erromango. Winds close to the center are
estimated at 75KM/HR. In the past 6 hours, the system was moving in a southeasterly direction at 9 KM/HR.

Gale force winds of 75 KM/HR with gusts up to 105 KM/HR within 140 Nautical miles in the southeast quadrant
is expected to increase in the next 12 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 27 Feb)           19.2S, 168.5E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 27 Feb)          19.5S, 169.1E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 28 Feb)           19.9S, 169.8E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 28 Feb)          20.3S, 170.7E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 28 Feb)          21.5S, 173.2E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 1 Mar)           23.9S, 176.7E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (11pm, 1 Mar)           26.9S, 179.1W            35 KTS (65 KM/HR)
+72 hours (11am, 2 Mar)           30.4S, 173.7W            35 KTS (65 KM/HR)s

However, isolated heavy rainfalls and thunder are expected over central and southern parts of Vanuatu this
afternoon and is expected to conditnue tonight with possible flash flooding in low lying areas and areas close
to river banks including coastal flooding.

Seas will remain rough to very rough with heavy swells expected and Marine Strong Wind Warning is current for
the central and southern waters. The Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfalls and strong wind warning is
also current for central and southern islands.

All ships, boats and fishing rafts are advised not to go out at sea over area mention until an All-Clear is
given by NDMO. NDMO advices that Blue Alert is effective for TAFEA provinces. Any actions regarding the Blue
Alert, contact them on 22699 or 33366.

People over central and southern Vanuatu are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets.

The next Advisory will be issued at 6:00pm or earlier if the situation changes.

This Advisory Bulletin is also available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu as well as on VMGD's facebook
page: https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/.   


Time (VUT)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr11 am February 27tropical low18.7S168.2E95
+6hr5 pm February 27119.2S168.5E95
+12hr11 pm February 27119.5S169.1E95
+18hr5 am February 28119.9S169.8E95
+24hr11 am February 28220.3S170.7E95
+36hr11 pm February 28221.5S173.2E110
+48hr11 am March 1123.9S176.7E110
+60hr11 pm March 1tropical low26.9S179.1W130
+72hr11 am March 2tropical low30.4S173.7W130

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册

×
P
回复

举报

下一页 »
123456下一页
返回列表 发新帖
高级模式
B Color Image Link Quote Code Smilies
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

QQ|Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|TY_Board论坛

GMT+8, 2026-3-2 13:23 , Processed in 0.060194 second(s), 18 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

© 2001-2025 Discuz! Team.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表