圣诞岛东南热带低压28U(25S)

理可的呆萌呆毛

這孩子怎麽說呢
承受著超過40kt的風切
拿到正式編號已經可以了

Ragasa

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:59 am WST on Wednesday 4 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 11.8S 108.7E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South 108.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 360 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island.
Movement: east northeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U lies to the east southeast of Christmas Island and is tracking
away to the east. It is expected to develop and may reach tropical cyclone
strength later today or on Thursday morning as it moves to the east over open
waters of the Indian Ocean. The system is then expected to weaken rapidly from
late Thursday and Friday as it moves into an unfavourable environment and
interacts with tropical low 30U.

It is not expected to impact Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Wednesday 04 March.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 4	tropical low	11.8S	108.7E	35
+6hr	8 am March 4	tropical low	11.8S	109.2E	60
+12hr	2 pm March 4	tropical low	11.7S	109.7E	80
+18hr	8 pm March 4	1	11.6S	110.5E	90
+24hr	2 am March 5	1	11.3S	111.7E	90
+36hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	11.3S	115.6E	115
+48hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	13.2S	119.4E	170
+60hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	15.0S	121.0E	210
+72hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	15.5S	121.0E	265

pocketbox

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Wednesday 4 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 11.7S 109.2E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.7 degrees South 109.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 405 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island.
Movement: east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U lies to the east southeast of Christmas Island and is moving
away to the east. Gale force winds are likely to the north of the system until
later Thursday. It could strengthen to tropical cyclone strength for a period
overnight today and Thursday morning. 28U is then expected to weaken rapidly
during from late Thursday and Friday as it moves into an unfavourable
environment and interacts with Tropical Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday 04 March.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 4	tropical low	11.7S	109.2E	35
+6hr	2 pm March 4	tropical low	11.7S	109.8E	60
+12hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	11.6S	110.7E	80
+18hr	2 am March 5	1	11.3S	111.8E	90
+24hr	8 am March 5	1	11.1S	113.6E	105
+36hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	12.0S	118.1E	140
+48hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	13.7S	120.7E	160
+60hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	15.7S	120.0E	195
+72hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0748 UTC 04/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm (130 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  04/1200: 11.8S 110.3E:     030 (060):  040  (075):  994
+12:  04/1800: 11.7S 111.8E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  992
+18:  05/0000: 11.5S 113.5E:     050 (090):  045  (085):  993
+24:  05/0600: 11.6S 115.9E:     055 (105):  045  (085):  994
+36:  05/1800: 13.3S 120.2E:     075 (135):  040  (075):  996
+48:  06/0600: 15.1S 121.3E:     075 (145):  030  (055):  999
+60:  06/1800: 16.2S 120.7E:     105 (195):  030  (055):  999
+72:  07/0600: 16.7S 119.7E:     160 (295):  030  (055):  999
+96:  08/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 09/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 28U has reached FT/CI of 2.5. Recent satellite imagery has shown
renewed deep convection near the centre.

Dvorak cloud pattern is shear pattern, with the low level centre less than 0.5
degrees from the deep convection and an instantaneous DT of 3.0. MET/PAT are
2.5/2.5 using a D 24 hour trend. FT and CI are weighted to MET/PAT. The full
suite of objective intensity estimates are not available. D-PRINT has the
intensity at 27 knots (1-min mean). Older 17UTC oceansat scat winds had gales
to the north of the low level centre. Intensity set to 35 knots based on Dvorak
and the past scat winds pass.

Shear is interesting. CIMMS shear has 50 knots of shear, but this is due to
strong high level easterly winds to the east of the centre which ease to light
west of the centre. Satellite imagery suggests the level of shear is less than
the CIMMS analysis. This gives a window tonight where the system could continue
strengthening, and it is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity by 18UTC.
With the forecast increasing in easterly motion taking it further under the
strong upper easterlies, the system is likely to weaken during tomorrow.
However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north,
gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until
sometime Friday.  

Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then
around the much larger tropical low 30U.

On Saturday, some guidance maintains a discrete low or a vorticity max embedded
in the broader circulation of 30U, that moves west southwest offshore from the
Pilbara coast, with a small possibility of a small area of gales to the south
of the centre.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:01 pm WST on Wednesday 4 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 11.7S 109.4E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.7 degrees South 109.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 430 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island.
Movement: slow moving.

Tropical low 28U lies to the east southeast of Christmas Island and is moving
away to the east. Gale force winds are likely to continue the north of the
system until Friday morning. It is likely to strengthen to tropical cyclone
strength for a period overnight today and Thursday. 28U is then expected to
weaken during from late Thursday and Friday as it moves into an unfavourable
environment and interacts with Tropical Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 04 March.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 4	tropical low	11.7S	109.4E	35
+6hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	11.8S	110.3E	60
+12hr	2 am March 5	1	11.7S	111.8E	80
+18hr	8 am March 5	1	11.5S	113.5E	90
+24hr	2 pm March 5	1	11.6S	115.9E	105
+36hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	13.3S	120.2E	135
+48hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	15.1S	121.3E	145
+60hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.2S	120.7E	195
+72hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	16.7S	119.7E	295

31500_UM6755

[TRANSITIONED]
25S TWENTYFIVE 260304 0600 11.7S 109.4E SHEM 35 998
Formerly Invest 90S

31500_UM6755

重發 刪了

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030621ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 109.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 109.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 11.5S 111.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 11.7S 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 13.2S 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.1S 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 109.9E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
691 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 040900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.7S 109.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 691 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 25S WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. THE
    
21. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL
    
22. CIRCULATION TO BE OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
    
23. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
24. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
25. OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
    
26. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
    
27. 25S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
    
28. OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH (25-30 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
    
29. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C).
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
    
34. POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
41.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
42.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
53. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD, ALONG
    
56. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH, THROUGH TAU 24.
    
57. NEAR TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE WIND FIELD OF A SEPARATE
    
58. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA (93S) TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE 25S TO
    
59. TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25S IS FORECAST TO
    
60. MARGINALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG EASTERLY
    
61. SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE VORTEX, DISALLOWING FURTHER
    
62. INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS
    
63. THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
    
64. THE WEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OF OVER 40 KTS. 25S IS EXPECTED TO
    
65. DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 48, NORTHWEST OF BROOME.
    
66. 
    
67. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
68. AGREEMENT WITH A 140 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC
    
69. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    
70. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
    
71. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON MARGINAL
    
72. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12-24 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HAFS-A IS
    
73. SLIGHTLY MORE RELUCTANT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THAN THE REMAINDER OF
    
74. GUIDANCE, SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 96.
    
75. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH
    
76. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
77. 
    
78. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
79.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
80.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
81. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1318 UTC 04/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 109.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (059 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  04/1800: 11.3S 111.4E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  997
+12:  05/0000: 11.1S 113.1E:     045 (085):  045  (085):  995
+18:  05/0600: 11.2S 115.5E:     055 (100):  045  (085):  996
+24:  05/1200: 11.9S 118.0E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  996
+36:  06/0000: 14.2S 121.1E:     075 (140):  035  (065): 1000
+48:  06/1200: 15.5S 121.4E:     085 (160):  030  (055): 1001
+60:  07/0000: 16.4S 120.5E:     100 (185):  030  (055): 1000
+72:  07/1200: 16.8S 119.4E:     145 (265):  030  (055): 1001
+96:  08/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 09/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 28U has struggled to develop over the last 6 hours due to high
easterly wind shear, with any deep convection remaining east of the system
centre. A SAR pass at 1105 UTC gives good confidence in position and wind
structure.

The Dvorak cloud pattern with curved band wrap of 0.3 gives a DT = 2.0. FT/CI =
2.0. MET agrees with a D trend over last 24 hours. The RCM2 Synthetic Aperture
Radar (SAR) pass at 1105 UTC showed the strongest winds are confined on the
northern side of the system. Objective guidance remains limited, with ADT shear
pattern of 2 to 2.5 over last 3 hours and DPRINT of 31 kts at 1200 UTC (1-min
mean). Intensity maintained at 35 knots.

Wind shear remains at over 30 knots from strong easterly winds aloft, but high
SSTs (28-29C), strong low level forcing and high moisture have maintained deep
convection on the western side of the low level centre. The lack of development
in the last 6 hours has reduced the risk of a tropical cyclone developing
tonight, and it is now only a moderate chance tomorrow. Wind shear will likely
remain high into Thursday, with further deterioration of conditions by Friday.
However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north,
gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until
sometime Friday.  

Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then
around the much larger tropical low 30U. The Fujiwhara Effect may affect the
motion of 28U but there remains high confidence in this track until at least
the weekend. On Saturday, some guidance maintains a discrete low or a vorticity
max embedded in the broader circulation of 30U, that moves west southwest
offshore from the Pilbara coast, with a small possibility of a small area of
gales to the south of the centre.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:44 pm WST on Wednesday 4 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 11.4S 109.9E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.4 degrees South 109.9 degrees East,
estimated to be 470 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island.
Movement: east northeast at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 28U lies well to the east southeast of Christmas Island and is
moving away to the east. Gale force winds are likely to continue on the north
of the system until Friday morning. 28U is then expected to weaken on Friday as
it moves into an unfavourable environment and interacts with Tropical Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Thursday 05 March.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	11.4S	109.9E	45
+6hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	11.3S	111.4E	70
+12hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	11.1S	113.1E	85
+18hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	11.2S	115.5E	100
+24hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	11.9S	118.0E	110
+36hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	14.2S	121.1E	140
+48hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	15.5S	121.4E	160
+60hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.4S	120.5E	185
+72hr	8 pm March 7	tropical low	16.8S	119.4E	265

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 110.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 110.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 11.1S 113.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 11.8S 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 13.5S 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.2S 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 110.9E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
697 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 041500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
   
4. WARNING NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.3S 110.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 697 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 25S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED, YET WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY
    
21. SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 041035Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
22. REVEALED THE COMPACT CORE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING
    
23. INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
    
25. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
27. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. A 041105Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWED A VMAX OF
    
28. OVER 60 KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS ANALYZED TO BE
    
29. ERRONEOUS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
    
30. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 25S IS IN A MARGINAL
    
31. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY
    
32. HIGH (30-35 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
    
33. TEMPERATURES (29-30 C).
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
    
38. POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 041200Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 041200Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 041035Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 041200Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
49.    VWS: 30-35 KTS
    
50.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD, ALONG
    
64. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH, THROUGH TAU 24.
    
65. NEAR TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE WIND FIELD OF A SEPARATE
    
66. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA (93S) TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE 25S TO
    
67. TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25S IS FORECAST TO
    
68. MARGINALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG EASTERLY
    
69. SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE VORTEX, DISALLOWING FURTHER
    
70. INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS
    
71. THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
    
72. THE WEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OF OVER 40 KTS. 25S IS EXPECTED TO
    
73. DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 48, NORTHWEST OF BROOME.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
76. AGREEMENT WITH A 180 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC
    
77. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    
78. ECMWF TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM
    
79. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON MARGINAL
    
80. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12-24 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING WITH NO
    
81. NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
82. CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
88. NNNN

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Ragasa

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:45 am WST on Thursday 5 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 11.3S 111.4E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South 111.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 630 kilometres east of Christmas Island.
Movement: east at 24 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 28U lies well to the east southeast of Christmas Island and is
moving away to the east. Gale force winds are likely to continue on the north
of the system until Friday morning. 28U is then expected to weaken on Friday as
it moves into an unfavourable environment and interacts with Tropical Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Thursday 05 March.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	11.3S	111.4E	35
+6hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	11.2S	113.1E	60
+12hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	11.2S	115.4E	80
+18hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	11.9S	118.0E	95
+24hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	13.0S	119.9E	105
+36hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	15.1S	121.3E	130
+48hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.2S	120.9E	155
+60hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	16.7S	119.9E	210
+72hr	2 am March 8	tropical low	16.9S	119.2E	230

1. IDW27700
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1912 UTC 04/03/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Low  
   
6. Identifier: 28U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 11.3S
   
9. Longitude: 111.4E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: east (086 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 992 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  05/0000: 11.2S 113.1E:     030 (060):  045  (085):  993
    
33. +12:  05/0600: 11.2S 115.4E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  994
    
34. +18:  05/1200: 11.9S 118.0E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  994
    
35. +24:  05/1800: 13.0S 119.9E:     055 (105):  040  (075):  996
    
36. +36:  06/0600: 15.1S 121.3E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  999
    
37. +48:  06/1800: 16.2S 120.9E:     085 (155):  030  (055):  999
    
38. +60:  07/0600: 16.7S 119.9E:     115 (210):  030  (055):  999
    
39. +72:  07/1800: 16.9S 119.2E:     125 (230):  030  (055):  998
    
40. +96:  08/1800:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 09/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Deep convection over Tropical Low 28U has persisted overnight. Scatterometry
    
44. passes illustrate vigorous westerly flow to the north of a very small system,
    
45. and provide good confidence in centre position and intensity at 40-45 kts.
    
46. 
    
47. The Dvorak cloud pattern with curved band wrap of 0.4 gives a DT = 2.5. FT/CI =
    
48. 2.5. MET agrees with a D trend over last 24 hours. ASCAT at 1436 UTC showed the
    
49. strongest winds are confined on the northern side of the system, with 40-45
    
50. kts. Objective guidance remains limited, with ADT shear pattern of 2 to 2.5
    
51. over last 3 hours, DPRINT of 31 kts at 1730 UTC and DMINT of 29 kts at 1035 UTC
    
52. (1-min mean).
    
53. 
    
54. Wind shear remains at over 30 knots from strong easterly winds aloft, but high
    
55. SSTs (28-29C), strong low level forcing and high moisture have maintained deep
    
56. convection on the western side of the low level centre. Wind shear will likely
    
57. remain high during today, with further deterioration of conditions by Friday.
    
58. However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north,
    
59. gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until
    
60. sometime Friday. During this morning, the system may develop further despite
    
61. the high wind shear but the chance of a tropical cyclone developing remains
    
62. only Moderate (20-50%).
    
63. 
    
64. Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then to
    
65. the south to southeast around the much larger Tropical Low 30U. The Fujiwhara
    
66. Effect may affect the motion of 28U but there remains high confidence in this
    
67. track until at least the weekend. On Saturday, some guidance maintains a
    
68. discrete low or a vorticity max embedded in the broader circulation of 30U,
    
69. that moves west southwest offshore from the Pilbara coast, with a small
    
70. possibility of a small area of gales to the south of the centre. However, the
    
71. low level vorticity will likely dissipate over the weekend due to its
    
72. interaction with 30U.
    
73. 
    
74. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
75. ==
    
76. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0130 UTC.
    
77. 
    
78. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
    
79. 532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
    
80. conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
    
81. (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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