珊瑚海热带低压29U(24P) - 西行趋向昆士兰州

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 150.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 150.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.0S 149.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.7S 148.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.6S 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 17.9S 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.6S 144.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 150.4E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 040900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR)
   
4. WARNING NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 150.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 24P WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
19. (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
    
20. A 040617Z F18 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED
    
21. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, VOID OF CONVECTIVE
    
22. ACTIVITY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE CONVECTION IS MEASURED TO BE
    
23. OFFSET OVER 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
24. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE
    
25. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
    
27. BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
28. ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
    
29. EASTERLY SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 040600Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 040600Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 040617Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 040600Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
61. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
    
62. AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE
    
63. TAU 48, SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
    
64. RELATIVELY LARGE THROUGHOUT ITS APPROACH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    
65. ONLY MARGINALLY INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40 KTS DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE
    
66. OF THE WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. AFTER MAKING
    
67. LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
68. AS IT TRAVERSES FURTHER INLAND. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO
    
69. LATER THAN TAU 72.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
72. AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, GALWEM AND UKMET,
    
73. WHICH TRACK THE VORTEX SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN THE
    
74. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIERS, THERE IS A 190 NM
    
75. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
    
76. NEAR THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH MEDIUM
    
77. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
    
78. TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE
    
79. WEAKENING. HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING A PEAK
    
80. INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
81. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
    
82. CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
87. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1336 UTC 04/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 150.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  04/1800: 15.1S 149.7E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  995
+12:  05/0000: 15.2S 149.2E:     040 (080):  040  (075):  993
+18:  05/0600: 15.6S 148.4E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  993
+24:  05/1200: 15.9S 147.5E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  993
+36:  06/0000: 16.9S 146.3E:     070 (125):  040  (075):  993
+48:  06/1200: 18.2S 144.2E:     105 (200):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  07/0000: 19.4S 142.6E:     135 (245):  025  (045): 1002
+72:  07/1200: 20.0S 141.2E:     155 (285):  020  (035): 1004
+96:  08/1200: 20.9S 141.7E:     195 (360):  020  (035): 1004
+120: 09/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 29U remains sheared and struggling to develop.

The low level centre was located using the ASCAT pass at 1040 UTC with moderate
confidence. The centre remains somewhat elongated and well displaced from the
deep convective mass to the west, confirming that deep layer easterly shear
continues to be a significant impediment to development.

Dvorak analysis applied a shear pattern with the deep convection displaced
approximately 1.25 degrees from the LLCC. DT is 1.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24
hour D- trend, with PAT adjusted down to 2.0. Final T based on PAT, FT = CI =
2.0. Objective guidance at 1200 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 30 kn, AiDT 34 kn,
DPRINT 30 kn, DMINT (0916 UTC) 31 kn. Intensity estimated at 30 knots based on
ASCAT which is consistent with the objective aids. The wind max is in the
monsoonal westerlies to the north of the centre which show little curvature and
are yet to wrap around the system significantly.

CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates that the system remains under the influence
of moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of approximately 20 knots.
Some upper divergence is analysed associated with the convective mass to the
west. Other environmental factors are relatively favourable, with SSTs high at
29-30C and good low level forcing from the southeasterlies and monsoonal
westerlies, but while the system remains titled to this degree, it will
struggle to develop.

A mid-level ridge extending from mainland Australia into the western Coral Sea
is expected to be the main steering influence, and there is broad agreement
across all numerical guidance on a southwesterly track, with most guidance
suggesting landfall on the northeast Queensland coast on Friday. A drift to the
south is expected to take the system into a slightly less hostile shear
environment, and therefore some strengthening is forecast prior to landfall in
line with most numerical guidance. There remains a moderate risk that the
system could attain tropical cyclone strength prior to landfall.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1930 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 10:41 pm EST on Wednesday 4 March 2026

Headline:
Moderate chance of a tropical cyclone off the North Tropical Coast, impacts expected on Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cooktown to Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South 150.3 degrees East, estimated to be 530 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 580 kilometres northeast of Cardwell.

Movement: south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 29U lies in the Coral Sea to the north of Willis Island. The low has been moving erratically but is expected to turn to the west-southwest on Thursday, taking it towards the North Tropical Coast.

There is a moderate chance of Tropical Low 29U developing into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall on the North Tropical Coast during Friday.

Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop over exposed coastal areas between Port Douglas and Cardwell, including Cairns, from Friday morning. Gales may extend north to Cooktown during Friday morning if the tropical low tracks further north than forecast.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h may extend further south to coastal areas between Cardwell and Palm Island on Friday, if the tropical low tracks south of the forecast track.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas north of Ingham on Thursday. Heavy rainfall may extend south to Palm Island and adjacent mainland areas on Friday.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Port Douglas and Ingham but are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Flood Watch is current for northern and far northern catchments.

Recommended Action:
- People between Cooktown and Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns and Innisfail, stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Thursday 05 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 4	tropical low	15.0S	150.3E	35
+6hr	4 am March 5	tropical low	15.1S	149.7E	60
+12hr	10 am March 5	tropical low	15.2S	149.2E	80
+18hr	4 pm March 5	tropical low	15.6S	148.4E	90
+24hr	10 pm March 5	tropical low	15.9S	147.5E	100
+36hr	10 am March 6	tropical low	16.9S	146.3E	125
+48hr	10 pm March 6	tropical low	18.2S	144.2E	200
+60hr	10 am March 7	tropical low	19.4S	142.6E	245
+72hr	10 pm March 7	tropical low	20.0S	141.2E	285

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 150.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 150.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.6S 149.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.4S 147.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 17.4S 146.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.5S 145.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.0S 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 150.0E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
286 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 041500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR)
   
4. WARNING NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 150.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 286 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P BECOMING ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041117Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED
    
21. THE STRETCHED WIND FIELD WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
    
22. WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
    
23. BOTH PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS.
    
24. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK
    
25. POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    
26. SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041117Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINED INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL
    
31. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND RIDGING TO THE
    
32. EAST
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    ABRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 041200Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 041200Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 040916Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 041200Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
    
59. THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
60. RIDGE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND RIDGING TO THE EAST.
    
61. 24P IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF CAIRNS AT AROUND 060600Z.
    
62. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME THE PRIMARY
    
63. STEERING MECHANISM AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, CAUSING THE
    
64. VORTEX TO TURN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
65. PERIOD. 24P IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40 KTS AS
    
66. IT APPROACHES THE QUEENSLAND COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
67. EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EASTERLY
    
68. SHEAR HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER LANDFALL,
    
69. TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION
    
70. EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 72.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
73. AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, GALWEM AND UKMET,
    
74. WHICH BOTH TRACK THE VORTEX SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN
    
75. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING THE TWO OUTLIERS, THERE IS A
    
76. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF AROUND 90 NM AT TAU 48, WHICH OPENS UP TO 160
    
77. NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE GOOGLE
    
78. DEEPMIND AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    
79. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERALLY STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36
    
80. BEFORE WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO
    
81. THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
82. 
    
83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
84.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
85.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
86. NNNN

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Ragasa

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 4:41 am EST on Thursday 5 March 2026

Headline:
Moderate chance of a tropical cyclone off the North Tropical Coast, impacts
expected on Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Cooktown to Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail
and Palm Island.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 149.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 475 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 535 kilometres
northeast of Cardwell.
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 29U lies in the Coral Sea to the north of Willis Island. The low
is expected to move to the west-southwest today, taking it towards the North
Tropical Coast.

There is a moderate chance of Tropical Low 29U developing into a tropical
cyclone before it makes landfall on the North Tropical Coast during Friday.

Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop over exposed coastal
areas between Port Douglas and Cardwell, including Cairns, from Friday morning.
Gales may extend north to Cooktown during Friday morning if the tropical low
tracks further north than forecast.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h may extend further south to coastal areas
between Cardwell and Palm Island on Friday, if the tropical low tracks south of
the forecast track.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas north of Ingham on Thursday. Heavy rainfall
may extend south to Palm Island and adjacent mainland areas on Friday.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Port Douglas and Ingham but
are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Flood Watch is current for northern and far northern catchments.

Recommended Action:
- People between Cooktown and Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns and
Innisfail, stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster
Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency
Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online
132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday 05 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am March 5	tropical low	15.1S	149.8E	45
+6hr	10 am March 5	tropical low	15.2S	149.2E	70
+12hr	4 pm March 5	tropical low	15.6S	148.5E	85
+18hr	10 pm March 5	tropical low	15.9S	147.6E	100
+24hr	4 am March 6	tropical low	16.3S	146.8E	110
+36hr	4 pm March 6	tropical low	17.7S	145.2E	145
+48hr	4 am March 7	tropical low	18.8S	143.3E	210
+60hr	4 pm March 7	tropical low	20.0S	141.8E	265
+72hr	4 am March 8	tropical low	20.2S	141.1E	320

1. IDQ20018
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1854 UTC 04/03/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Low  
   
6. Identifier: 29U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 15.1S
   
9. Longitude: 149.8E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest (258 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 995 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT:W0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  05/0000: 15.2S 149.2E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  993
    
33. +12:  05/0600: 15.6S 148.5E:     045 (085):  040  (075):  993
    
34. +18:  05/1200: 15.9S 147.6E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  993
    
35. +24:  05/1800: 16.3S 146.8E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  993
    
36. +36:  06/0600: 17.7S 145.2E:     075 (145):  030  (055):  999
    
37. +48:  06/1800: 18.8S 143.3E:     115 (210):  025  (045): 1003
    
38. +60:  07/0600: 20.0S 141.8E:     145 (265):  025  (045): 1002
    
39. +72:  07/1800: 20.2S 141.1E:     175 (320):  020  (035): 1003
    
40. +96:  08/1800: 21.2S 142.5E:     215 (395):  020  (035): 1004
    
41. +120: 09/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Low 29U remains sheared and is struggling to develop.
    
44. 
    
45. The low level centre position was estimated extrapolating from the 1040 UTC
    
46. ASCAT pass in association with radar imagery from Willis Island. The estimated
    
47. centre remains well sheared from a cluster of deep convection to the west.
    
48. 
    
49. Dvorak analysis: low confidence in the DT of 1.5-2.0 based on a curved band
    
50. pattern with 0.2 to 0.3 wrap. MET is 1.0 based on a 24 hour W trend, and PAT is
    
51. adjusted up to 1.5. Final T based on PAT giving FT/CI = 1.5/2.0. Objective
    
52. guidance at 1700 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 29 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 29 kn,
    
53. DMINT (1536 UTC) 32 kn, MW sounders (1536 UTC) 41 kn, SATCON 38 kn. Intensity
    
54. estimated at 35 knots in the monsoonal westerlies to the north of the centre,
    
55. allowing for some strengthening since the 1040 UTC ASCAT pass.
    
56. 
    
57. CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates that the upper easterlies are gradually
    
58. easing over the system, and the estimated deep layer shear has dropped to
    
59. around 10-15 knots. The system has yet to show any improvement in response to
    
60. this however, with convection well to the west of the low level centre
    
61. continuing to dominate. Numerical guidance suggests the low level structure
    
62. remains elongated, with some suggestion of a transient second centre associated
    
63. with the convection to the west. Other environmental factors are relatively
    
64. favourable, with SSTs high at 29-30C and good low level forcing from the
    
65. southeasterlies and monsoonal westerlies, but even with the shear diminishing,
    
66. the system would take some time to develop into a tropical cyclone from its
    
67. current disorganised state.
    
68. 
    
69. A mid-level ridge extending from mainland Australia into the western Coral Sea
    
70. is expected to be the main steering influence, and there is broad agreement
    
71. across all numerical guidance on a southwesterly track, with most guidance
    
72. suggesting landfall on the northeast Queensland coast on Friday.  
    
73. 
    
74. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
75. ==
    
76. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0130 UTC.
    
77. 
    
78. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
    
79. 532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
    
80. conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
    
81. (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

复制代码

Ragasa

WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 149.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 149.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.9S 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.7S 147.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 17.9S 146.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.3S 145.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.6S 144.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 149.6E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 042100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR)
   
4. WARNING NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 149.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 260 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 24P WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION BEING SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
    
21. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
    
22. KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 C AND 30 C, AND WEAK
    
23. POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE LLCC, CONSISTENT
    
25. WITH 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
    
26. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY
    
27. MENTIONED 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
28. ESTIMATES, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PATTERNS OVER
    
33. AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH PACIFIC
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    ABRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 041536Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 041730Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 041730Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 041729Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 041830Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
46.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P WILL CONTINUE WEST-
    
61. SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CURRENT DEEP-LAYER STR DRIVES THE
    
62. CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN QUEENSLAND NEAR TAU 36. LITTLE
    
63. CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTEX LACKS SUFFICIENT
    
64. OUTFLOW AND ONLY 24-48 HOURS REMAIN FOR THE VORTEX TO REMAIN OVER
    
65. SUPPORTIVE AND WARM OCEAN WATERS. 24P WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT INTENSITY
    
66. UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 24 WHEN THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES LAND AND
    
67. BEGINS WEAKENING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS. THE CIRCULATION IS
    
68. FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST THE MULTI MODEL
    
71. CONSENSUS HAS DECREASED WITH GFS NOW THE ONLY OUTLYING SOLUTION,
    
72. DEPICTING A TRACK THAT SCRAPES THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST AND
    
73. SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
74. PLACED BETWEEN THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS AND AI SOLUTIONS WITH MEDIUM
    
75. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERALLY STEADY
    
76. INTENSITIES  UNTIL THE CIRCULATION BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
    
77. TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND, AND WEAKENING BETWEEN
    
78. TAU 24 AND 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
79. CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
80. 
    
81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
82.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
83.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
84. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0126 UTC 05/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 148.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  05/0600: 16.1S 148.4E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  996
+12:  05/1200: 16.4S 147.7E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  996
+18:  05/1800: 16.7S 147.3E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  993
+24:  06/0000: 17.4S 146.8E:     055 (105):  040  (075):  994
+36:  06/1200: 18.8S 145.5E:     085 (160):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  07/0000: 20.5S 144.4E:     120 (220):  025  (045): 1003
+60:  07/1200: 21.2S 143.9E:     105 (190):  020  (035): 1004
+72:  08/0000: 22.2S 144.9E:     110 (205):  020  (035): 1004
+96:  09/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 10/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 29U remains sheared and is struggling to develop.

There is high certainty in the location due to a completely exposed low level
centre evident on visible satellite imagery.

Dvorak analysis: DT of 1.5 based on a shear pattern with greater than 1   from
strong T gradient. MET is 1.5 based on a 24 hour W trend, and PAT agrees. FT of
1.5 with CI held at 2.0 while weakening. Objective guidance at 0000 UTC (1
minute means): ADT 25 kn, AiDT 31 kn, DPRINT 29 kn, DMINT (2002 UTC) 25 kn.
SATCON unavailable since 1830 UTC. Intensity estimated at 30 knots.

CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates that the easterly deep layer shear has
dropped to around 10 knots. The system however is still showing clear signs of
being adversely impacted by wind shear with the deep convection displaced well
to the west of the low level centre. The low level structure remains elongated
and numerical guidance generally maintains this. Other environmental factors
are relatively favourable, with SSTs high at 29-30C and good low level forcing
from the southeasterlies and monsoonal westerlies, but even with the shear
diminishing, the system would take some time to develop into a tropical cyclone
from its current disorganised state and the likelihood of it becoming a
tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Queensland coast is reducing.

A mid-level ridge extending from mainland Australia into the western Coral Sea
is expected to be the main steering influence, and there is broad agreement
across all numerical guidance on a southwesterly track, with most guidance
suggesting landfall on the northeast Queensland coast on Friday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0730 UTC.

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IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 10:43 am EST on Thursday 5 March 2026

Headline:
Decreasing chance of a tropical cyclone forming near the North Tropical Coast, but impacts still expected.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Cooktown to Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South 148.9 degrees East, estimated to be 360 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 420 kilometres northeast of Cardwell.

Movement: southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 29U is in the Coral Sea to the northwest of Willis Island. It is expected to move to the southwest today, and cross between Cairns and Townsville during Friday.

The likelihood of Tropical Low 29U developing into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall has decreased, however impacts are still expected.

Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current in parts of Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts. Communities may experience significant impacts even at some distance from where the system is forecast to make landfall.

A Flood Watch is current for northern and far northern catchments.

Recommended Action:
- People between Cooktown and Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns and Innisfail, stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system. Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 5	tropical low	15.7S	148.9E	35
+6hr	4 pm March 5	tropical low	16.1S	148.4E	60
+12hr	10 pm March 5	tropical low	16.4S	147.7E	80
+18hr	4 am March 6	tropical low	16.7S	147.3E	90
+24hr	10 am March 6	tropical low	17.4S	146.8E	105
+36hr	10 pm March 6	tropical low	18.8S	145.5E	160
+48hr	10 am March 7	tropical low	20.5S	144.4E	220
+60hr	10 pm March 7	tropical low	21.2S	143.9E	190
+72hr	10 am March 8	tropical low	22.2S	144.9E	205

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 148.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 148.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.5S 147.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 148.6E.
05MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
192 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) HAS REVEALED TC 24P WITH A
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) CENTER THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO DETIORATE RAPIDLY WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED
WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD,
WITH SURFACE INTENSITIES BELOW 35 KTS, ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER 042327Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR, HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2026-3-4 16:16
WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P ( ...

南太这个风季出个TC太难了，还不一定命名