西澳北部近海热带低压30U(26S)

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Headline:
Tropical Low 30U to move west and remain far enough north of the Pilbara not to cause any impacts to the coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.5 degrees South, 118.3 degrees East , 315 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 390 kilometres north northeast of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 24 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low 30U is forecast to move steadily west and remain well off the coast. Environmental conditions are mixed for development and development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. However, a period of gales south and/or west of the centre is possible at times through to Sunday morning. The chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Friday to Sunday.

No direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U should weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	17.5S	118.3E	45
+6hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.7S	116.9E	70
+12hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	17.5S	115.5E	85
+18hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	16.9S	114.4E	100
+24hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.5S	113.6E	110
+36hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.6S	112.0E	120
+48hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	17.0S	110.3E	115
+60hr	2 am March 8	tropical low	17.6S	108.4E	135
+72hr	2 pm March 8	tropical low	18.5S	106.2E	150

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday

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Headline:
Tropical Low 30U to move west and remain far enough north of the Pilbara not to cause any impacts to the coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.9 degrees South, 116.8 degrees East , 320 kilometres north of Karratha and 335 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland .
Movement: west at 24 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low 30U is forecast to move steadily west and remain well off the coast. Environmental conditions are mixed for development and development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. However, a period of gales south and/or west of the centre is possible at times through to Sunday morning. The chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Friday to Sunday.

No direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U should weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.9S	116.8E	55
+6hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	17.5S	115.3E	80
+12hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	17.2S	114.8E	95
+18hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.9S	114.3E	110
+24hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.9S	113.6E	120
+36hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	17.0S	111.9E	140
+48hr	8 pm March 7	tropical low	17.5S	110.2E	140
+60hr	8 am March 8	tropical low	18.1S	108.3E	160
+72hr	8 pm March 8	tropical low	19.1S	106.6E	175

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

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WTXS21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421Z MAR 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 116.5E TO 17.6S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 116.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION LARGELY
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
DELAY THE CONSOLIDATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.
//
NNNN

Ragasa

Headline:
Tropical Low 30U to move west and remain far enough north of the Pilbara not to cause any impacts to the coast.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 30U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.3 degrees South, 114.9 degrees East , 435 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 515 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland .
Movement: west northwest at 33 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 30U is forecast to move steadily west and remain well off the coast. Environmental conditions are mixed for development and development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. However, a period of gales west of the centre is possible at times through to Sunday morning. The chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone is Moderate until Sunday.

No direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U is forecast to weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.


Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	17.3S	114.9E	55
+6hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	16.6S	114.1E	80
+12hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.5S	113.4E	95
+18hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.6S	112.7E	95
+24hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.6S	112.0E	100
+36hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	16.9S	110.3E	105
+48hr	2 am March 8	tropical low	17.4S	108.7E	115
+60hr	2 pm March 8	tropical low	18.4S	106.6E	135
+72hr	2 am March 9	tropical low	19.4S	104.6E	150

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Friday.

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0140 UTC 06/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 30U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 113.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (304 deg)
Speed of Movement: 16 knots (30 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/0600: 16.2S 113.4E:     035 (070):  035  (065):  994
+12:  06/1200: 16.5S 112.7E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  994
+18:  06/1800: 16.5S 111.9E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  992
+24:  07/0000: 16.6S 111.2E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  992
+36:  07/1200: 17.0S 109.7E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  994
+48:  08/0000: 17.7S 107.8E:     065 (120):  030  (055):  998
+60:  08/1200: 18.7S 105.8E:     075 (140):  030  (055):  998
+72:  09/0000: 19.7S 103.7E:     080 (150):  030  (055):  998
+96:  10/0000: 20.3S 100.0E:     100 (180):  030  (055):  998
+120: 11/0000: 19.7S  95.7E:     130 (245):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
Tropical low 30U remains in a high sheared environment.

Tropical Low 30U located well north-northwest of Karratha, with recent motion
towards the northwest away from the coast. There is moderate to good confidence
in the analysis position with an exposed low level centre visible on the latest
satellite imagery. For a period overnight, deep convection developed near the
low-level centre. However, over the last few hours this convection has weakened
and the cloud temperature gradient is rapidly eroding. It is likely the
low-level centre will remain well exposed during the day.

Dvorak analysis: DT of 2.5 based on a shear pattern with less than 0.75 deg
from strong temperature gradient. The DT analysis is likely too high and overly
responsive to the overnight convection MET is 1.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend,
and PAT adjusted to 2. FT/CI set to 2.0 based on PAT. No objective guidance
available. Intensity estimated at 35 knots, which chiefly based on model
guidance.

CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very strong easterly deep-layer shear of
around 30  40 knots. The system is showing clear signs of being adversely
impacted by this shear, with deep convection eroding near the centre and the
low-level circulation becoming increasingly exposed.

Sea surface temperatures remain relatively favourable, between 26  29  C along
the forecast track. There is good confidence in a westward track under the
steering influence of a strong mid-level ridge to the south.

The system is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity, although a
period of gales may occur at times, mainly north of the centre, through to
Sunday morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0730 UTC.



Headline:
Tropical low 30U will move westwards, and remain far to the north of the Pilbara coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South, 113.9 degrees East , 620 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 670 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: northwest at 30 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 30U is expected to move steadily westwards and remain well away from the Western Australian coastline.

Environmental conditions are mixed for further development. While development into a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out, it currently appears unlikely. A period of gales may occur at times, mainly north of the centre, through to Sunday morning.

No direct impacts are expected for the WA mainland. 30U is forecast to gradually weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	15.9S	113.9E	45
+6hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.2S	113.4E	70
+12hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.5S	112.7E	90
+18hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.5S	111.9E	100
+24hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.6S	111.2E	100
+36hr	8 pm March 7	tropical low	17.0S	109.7E	105
+48hr	8 am March 8	tropical low	17.7S	107.8E	120
+60hr	8 pm March 8	tropical low	18.7S	105.8E	140
+72hr	8 am March 9	tropical low	19.7S	103.7E	150

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Friday

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 113.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 113.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.6S 112.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 15.7S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.2S 109.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.8S 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 18.6S 103.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 113.4E.
06MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
389 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051430).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 060300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 113.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 389 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A GRADUALLY
    
19. CONSOLIDATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
20. WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP
    
21. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WHILE CONTINUED
    
22. PRESSURE ALONG THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
    
23. HAS REMAINED VISIBLE ON ANIMATED MSI. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED
    
24. MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
    
25. KTS), MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
26. BETWEEN 28 C TO 29 C. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED MSI. THE
    
28. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
29. ON AN EARLIER 051704Z OSCAT PASS AND THE PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX
    
30. OF 35 KTS.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 051704Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
35. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 062338Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 060000Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
43. UNFAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
56. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S IS FORECASTED TO
    
59. TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
    
60. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
61. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 26S WILL MAINTAIN
    
62. SURFACE INTENSITIES OF 35 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
    
63. PERIOD, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
    
64. UNFAVORABLE UNTIL TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
    
65. A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE AS THE VORTEX IS DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARD
    
66. TOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 26 C AND BELOW. TC
    
67. 26S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
    
68. 
    
69. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    
70. UNDER 100 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
    
71. CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECASTED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY
    
72. SPREAD IS UP TO 10 KTS BY TAU 72, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
    
73. DEPICTING TC 26S MAINTAINING SURFACE INTENSITIES NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL
    
74. TAU 48, WITH A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER AS THE
    
75. ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE WITH STRONG VWS AND COOL
    
76. SSTS.
    
77. 
    
78. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
79.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
80.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
81. NNNN

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 06/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 30U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 113.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (314 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/1200: 16.0S 112.9E:     025 (050):  035  (065):  992
+12:  06/1800: 16.2S 112.3E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  992
+18:  07/0000: 16.4S 111.6E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  993
+24:  07/0600: 16.6S 110.8E:     045 (090):  035  (065):  993
+36:  07/1800: 17.2S 109.2E:     055 (095):  035  (065):  993
+48:  08/0600: 18.1S 107.1E:     060 (115):  030  (055):  997
+60:  08/1800: 18.9S 105.1E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  997
+72:  09/0600: 19.8S 103.1E:     080 (145):  030  (055):  996
+96:  10/0600: 19.8S  99.2E:     100 (190):  030  (055):  996
+120: 11/0600: 19.4S  95.0E:     135 (255):  030  (055):  996
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 30U has weakened over the past several hours in an unfavourable
environment.

Tropical Low 30U is located well north-northwest of Karratha and has recently
moved towards the northwest, away from the coast. There is good confidence in
the analysed position, with an exposed low-level centre evident on the latest
satellite imagery. Deep convection to the west of the system has collapsed over
the last few hours.

Dvorak analysis: DT of 1.0 based on a shear pattern with less than 1.25 deg
from strong temperature gradient. MET is 0.0 based on a 24 hour W trend, and
PAT adjusted to 0.5. FT is 1.0 and CI reduced to 1.5. No objective guidance
available. Intensity estimated at 35 knots, based on scatterometry passes
(ASCAT 0122UTC, and OSCAT 0400UTC) which observed 35 knots in the northwest
quadrant.

Sea surface temperatures remain relatively favourable, between 26  29C along
the forecast track. However, CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very strong
easterly deep-layer shear of around 25 knots. The system has been adversely
impacted by this shear, with deep convection eroding near the centre. Recent
analysis and model guidance have been consistent, supporting a reduction in the
risk of tropical cyclone development to a Low chance.

There is good confidence in a westward track under the steering influence of a
strong mid-level ridge to the south.

The system is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity, although a
period of gales may occur at times, mainly north of the centre, through to
Sunday morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.





Headline:
Tropical low 30U will move westwards, and remain far to the north of the Pilbara coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South, 113.4 degrees East , 660 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 690 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 30U is expected to move steadily westwards and remain well away from the Western Australian coastline.

Environmental conditions are mixed for further development. While development into a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out, it currently appears unlikely. A period of gales may occur at times, mainly north of the centre, through to Sunday morning.

No direct impacts are expected for the WA mainland. 30U is forecast to gradually weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	15.8S	113.4E	30
+6hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.0S	112.9E	50
+12hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.2S	112.3E	75
+18hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.4S	111.6E	85
+24hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	16.6S	110.8E	90
+36hr	2 am March 8	tropical low	17.2S	109.2E	95
+48hr	2 pm March 8	tropical low	18.1S	107.1E	115
+60hr	2 am March 9	tropical low	18.9S	105.1E	130
+72hr	2 pm March 9	tropical low	19.8S	103.1E	145

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Friday