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发表于 2026-3-18 03:45
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IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 4:54 am EST on Wednesday 18 March 2026
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to intensify in the northern Coral Sea, and
is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.
Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: Lockhart River to Port Douglas, and adjacent inland areas.
Cancelled zone: None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South 154.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 660 kilometres northeast of Willis Island and 1050 kilometres
east northeast of Cooktown.
Movement: west northwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 2 intensity in the
northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and
approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port
Douglas. A severe impact is likely late in the week.
Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 200 km/h are possible near the centre
of Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/hr are possible between Coen and Cooktown from
Thursday night.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are possible between Cape Melville
and Port Douglas from early Thursday morning.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are also possible between Lockhart
River and Cape Melville from Thursday afternoon.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape
Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending inland during
Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is possible between Lockhart River and Cape
Melville, and also inland areas west of Coen, from Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas. LARGE WAVES may
produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that
tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.
Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay may rise significantly above the normal high
tide, DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING is possible for low-lying coastal
areas.
Recommended Action:
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au
- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency
Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online
www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Wednesday 18 March.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
| | Time (AEST) | Intensity Category | Latitude
(decimal deg.) | Longitude
(decimal deg.) | Estimated Position
Accuracy (km) | | 0hr | 4 am March 18 | 2 | 12.2S | 154.4E | 35 | | +6hr | 10 am March 18 | 3 | 12.2S | 153.2E | 60 | | +12hr | 4 pm March 18 | 3 | 12.4S | 152.1E | 80 | | +18hr | 10 pm March 18 | 3 | 12.8S | 151.0E | 95 | | +24hr | 4 am March 19 | 3 | 13.3S | 149.7E | 100 | | +36hr | 4 pm March 19 | 4 | 13.7S | 147.1E | 110 | | +48hr | 4 am March 20 | 4 | 13.8S | 144.9E | 125 | | +60hr | 4 pm March 20 | 2 | 13.9S | 142.7E | 150 | | +72hr | 4 am March 21 | 1 | 13.9S | 140.4E | 170 |
- IDQ20018
- TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
- Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
- at: 1916 UTC 17/03/2026
- Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
- Identifier: 34U
- Data At: 1800 UTC
- Latitude: 12.2S
- Longitude: 154.4E
- Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
- Movement Towards: west northwest (285 deg)
- Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
- Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
- Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
- Central Pressure: 981 hPa
- Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
- Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
- Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
- Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
- Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
- Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
- Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
- Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
- Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
- Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
- Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
- Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
- Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
- FORECAST DATA
- Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
- (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
- +06: 18/0000: 12.2S 153.2E: 030 (060): 065 (120): 978
- +12: 18/0600: 12.4S 152.1E: 040 (080): 070 (130): 974
- +18: 18/1200: 12.8S 151.0E: 050 (095): 075 (140): 970
- +24: 18/1800: 13.3S 149.7E: 055 (100): 080 (150): 966
- +36: 19/0600: 13.7S 147.1E: 060 (110): 090 (165): 957
- +48: 19/1800: 13.8S 144.9E: 065 (125): 105 (195): 941
- +60: 20/0600: 13.9S 142.7E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 982
- +72: 20/1800: 13.9S 140.4E: 090 (170): 045 (085): 992
- +96: 21/1800: 13.9S 135.7E: 110 (205): 050 (095): 988
- +120: 22/1800: 14.2S 131.0E: 125 (235): 030 (055): 1000
- REMARKS:
- Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) continues to gradually develop in the northern
- Coral Sea. Position is based on recent ASCAT passes with good confidence.
- Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of 0.9
- yields a DT of 3.5, although the pattern has become less clear in recent
- imagery. A 24-hour D+ trend yields a MET of 3.0, and PT adjusted to 3.5. FT/CI
- is 3.5. Intensity is estimated at 60 knots, slightly higher than Dvorak
- suggests but supported by a 0759 UTC SAR pass and a high resolution ASCAT-B
- pass at 1110 UTC. Objective guidance at 1800 UTC unless otherwise stated (all
- one-minute mean); ADT 61 kn, AidT 49 kn, DPRINT 62 kn, DMINT 42 kn, SATCON 65
- kn (1600 UTC).
- Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. Narelle
- has moved into a region of low vertical wind shear, in the range of 5 to 10
- knots. It is moving under the axis of an upper anticyclone, and is expected to
- remain in this region with favourable low shear and good upper outflow. Other
- parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including, warm sea
- surface temperatures of around 29 30 C, and generally deep moisture, dry air
- is currently remaining well to the west and is unlikely to impact development.
- Steady to rapid intensification is forecast until landfall. The rate of
- intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper
- trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow.
- There is very good confidence is the westward tracks of Narelle, with the
- subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There is,
- however, a reasonable amount of variation in how quickly Narelle moves west
- across guidance, and Narelle may approach the north east Queensland coast as
- early as Thursday afternoon, which is earlier than the current most likely
- forecast track. This uncertainty in timing also impacts the intensification
- forecast, and there is a chance that Narelle either begins to interact with
- land and weaken earlier, or slows and intensifies more than forecast.
- After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be
- steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the
- Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As
- Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably
- weaken. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and
- re-intensification is forecast. There is forecast to be enough time over the
- warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear
- continuing, and sufficient deep moisture for Narelle to intensify to a severe
- tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern
- Territory.
- Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
- ==
- The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC.
- Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
- 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
- conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
- (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-17 14:50
发表于 2026-3-17 19:55
