罗德里格斯岛东南热带气旋第13号“茵杜萨”(29S.Indusa) - 逐渐南下 - MFR:70KT JTWC:90KT

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 011903
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2026/04/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 73.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/02 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2026/04/02 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/04/03 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2026/04/03 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 175 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED NEAR THE
CENTRE, WITH AN INCREASE IN CURVATURE. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AT 1707Z DID
NOT PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASUREMENT OF WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTRE OF
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN
ALLOWS US TO RAISE THE DVORAK T NUMBER TO 2.5 AND TO CLASSIFY SYSTEM
13-20252026 AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.

THE ASCAT SWATHS FROM 1701Z YESTERDAY AND 0333Z THIS MORNING ALLOWED
US TO TRACK THE SYSTEM AND INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION SUBSIDED DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE
ASCAT SWATH, WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.0.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS LOW
AND IS RELATED TO THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 29°C). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN
RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 020032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2026/04/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 73.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/02 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2026/04/03 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2026/04/03 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 185 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SW: 175 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130

120H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AT TIMES, BUT
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANISE WITH THE FORMATION OF
CURVED BANDS. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE PATTERN IS CONFIRMED BY THE 2300Z
F-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 37 GHZ, WHICH SHOWS THE INITIAL FORMATION OF A
LOWER-LEVEL EYE, IN CONTRAST TO THE 1946Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
1945Z KUSCAT PASS ESTIMATES WINDS OF 34 KT BELOW THE CONVECTION, BUT
THIS MEASUREMENT IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATED DUE TO RAIN. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS MAINTAINS A T-NUMBER OF 2.5. TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO
ACCOUNT, SYSTEM 13-20252026 IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT, BUT A NAMING AT THE NEXT ANALYSIS TIME SEEMS
LIKELY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS LOW
AND IS RELATED TO THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 29°C). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN
RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011721ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 73.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 73.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 12.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 13.8S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 15.8S 71.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.3S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 25.4S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 32.4S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 36.5S 79.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 73.6E.
02APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
268 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
020000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 011730).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 020300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.4S 73.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 268 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 29S WITH AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND SPIRAL
    
19. BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. 29S HAS
    
20. CONSOLIDATED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS; A 020110Z SSMIS
    
21. 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH
    
22. DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CORE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
    
23. HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
    
24. WIND SHEAR, HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST NEAR-
    
25. RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON A 012239Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 020110Z
    
27. 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
28. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 011957Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED IMAGE
    
29. REVEALING 30-35KTS OUTSIDE RAIN CONTAMINATED REGIONS, THE CIMSS DPRINT
    
30. AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AND AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES
    
31. LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
    
34. WIND RADII BASED ON A PARTIAL 011957Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED IMAGE.
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
37. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 020000Z
    
43.    CIMMS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 020110Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
58. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
    
61. NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR CENTERED TO ITS
    
62. SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, 29S WILL BEGIN
    
63. TRANSITING SOUTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. 29S IS
    
64. FORECAST TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE
    
65. SOUTHEASTWARD, BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) NO LATER THAN
    
66. TAU 96. STT IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120, AS 29S ENTERS
    
67. INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
    
68. TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE
    
69. STORM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. REGARDING
    
70. INTENSITY, 29S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12,
    
71. WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) EXPECTED FROM TAU 12-36.
    
72. 29S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PAST TAU 36, ALBEIT AT A
    
73. SLOWER RATE, UNTIL IT PEAKS AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME IT
    
74. ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE 80 KTS
    
75. AT TAU 48-72, HOWEVER, A PEAK INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 80 KTS IS
    
76. ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 60, WHICH IS UNABLE TO BE REFLECTED ON THE
    
77. JTWC FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, 29S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS
    
78. IT TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERGOES STT.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
81. AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, WITH ALL
    
82. RELIABLE MODELS DEPICTING A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
    
83. AROUND TAU 72 AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL
    
84. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY AS 29S ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
    
85. UNDERGOING STT INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY TO TRACK SPEED. AS A RESULT, THE
    
86. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
    
87. INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A PERIOD OF
    
88. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THERE IS
    
89. DISAGREEMENT IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, AND THEREFORE THE PEAK
    
90. INTENSITY. TWO JTWC RI AIDS, HWRF, AND GFS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
    
91. OF RI, WHILE HAFS-A REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE. ALL INTENSITY
    
92. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 75 KTS AT TAU 60,
    
93. HOWEVER, THE RI AIDS AND HWRF EXCEED A 100KT PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU
    
94. 60. ALL INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN A STEADY WEAKENING
    
95. TREND FROM TAU 60-72 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
    
96. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
    
97. CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
98. 
    
99. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
100.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
104. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 020641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 73.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/02 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65

24H: 2026/04/03 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/04/03 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95

120H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 37.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH
BETTER ORGANISATION BUT HIGHER TOP TEMPERATURES. THE F17 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 0114Z SHOWS A RING AT 37 GHZ WITH THE BEGINNING OF A RING
AT 85 GHZ, AND THE SAR PASS FROM 0052Z MEASURES MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS
OF 40 KT, INDICATING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAKA  S
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ON THE CURVED BAND IS 3.0, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS USING AIDT SUGGESTS 35A  40 KT. THE SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE
NAMED INDUSA THIS MORNING, GIVEN THAT IT HAD ALREADY REACHED MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE LAST NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS LOW AND IS RELATED TO
THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 29AOC). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF
THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 02 日 18 时
“茵杜萨”在西南印度洋生成

时  间: 2日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬12.1度，东经73.5度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 996百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东北方向约1925公里

变化过程: “茵杜萨”于今日下午在西南印度洋生成

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月2日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 73.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 73.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 13.0S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 14.6S 72.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.1S 71.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.5S 70.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 26.2S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 34.1S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 39.3S 78.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 73.4E.
02APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 020900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.0S 73.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 300 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    
18. CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) SLOWLY
    
19. TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
20. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER A BRIEF
    
21. PERIOD OF INTENSE CONVECTION PRODUCING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
    
22. FEATURE, THE SYSTEM NOW DISPLAYS A MORE PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDING
    
23. WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SOME DRIER AIR
    
24. IS ENTERING THE CORE OF THE VORTEX, SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN DEVELOPMENT,
    
25. WHILE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
    
26. INTENSIFICATION - SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-30 C),
    
27. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KTS) AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
    
28. REMAINS STRONG, PRIMARILY IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE INITIAL
    
29. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WRAPPING OF THE
    
30. CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP, IN
    
31. LINE WITH THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN EARLIER (020149Z) F16 SSMIS PASS.
    
32. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
33. BASED ON AN EARLIER (020052Z) RCM-3 SAR PASS SHOWING A COMPACT SYSTEM
    
34. WITH 35-40 KTS WIND SPEED BANDING ALMOST FULLY ENCIRCLING THE LLCC.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 020052Z RCM-3 SAR DATA
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
39. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
43.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 020600Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 020328Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 020630Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
50.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC INDUSA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
64. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
65. UNTIL AT LEAST TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY
    
66. FAVORABLE RESULTING IN STEADY, NEAR-RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
67. THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM
    
68. WILL REACH INTENSITY BEYOND THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED PEAK OF 85 KTS
    
69. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, BUT PRIOR TO TAU 72, WHICH THE CURRENT
    
70. WARNING GRAPHIC IS NOT ABLE TO VISUALIZE. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
    
71. AXIS OF THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 72, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING
    
72. WITH A TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND
    
73. AND BEGINNING OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE ENVIRONMENT
    
74. WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE, WITH DRY AIR ENTERING
    
75. THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, MULTIPLIED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING
    
76. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEFORE TAU
    
77. 120, THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SIZE AND BECOME
    
78. SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SYMMETRIC, WITH THE CORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. TC
    
79. 29S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE ETT JUST PRIOR TO TAU 120, AS IT
    
80. POSITIONS ITSELF UNDERNEATH THE STRONG, UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
    
83. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH VERY TIGHT INITIAL GUIDANCE
    
84. ENVELOPE, AS WITNESSED BY A 75 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72,
    
85. INCREASING TO 250+ NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY
    
86. OUTLIER IS NAVGEM, WHICH PREDICTS A SHARPER TURN AROUND THE WESTERN
    
87. PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
88. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST,
    
89. WITH NAVGEM BEING THE PRIMARY OUTLIER AGAIN PROJECTING A MUCH
    
90. FASTER, EASTWARD TRACK. JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS LAID
    
91. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
    
92. INCLUDING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS, AND CLOSE TO THE
    
93. PROJECTION FROM HAFS. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL
    
94. TIMELINE OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING, THE PEAK INTENSITY
    
95. SPREAD IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 40 KTS, WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS
    
96. ONLY SHOWING PEAK OF 60-65 KTS, OPPOSING COAMPS-TC RI-AID AND
    
97. COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING 95-100 KTS WIND MAXIMUM.
    
98. 
    
99. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
100.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
101.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
104. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 021320
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 73.3 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/03 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/03 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2026/04/07 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INDUSA'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANISED, CONCENTRATING SLIGHTLY MORE AROUND THE CENTRE. ITS PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE AN EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH A BEGINNING
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AT THE POLAR AND EQUATORIAL SIDES. THE GCOM
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0817Z AND F18 FROM 1119Z ALLOWED US TO TRACK
THE VORTEX IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND ALSO HIGHLIGHT AN INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH COULD WELL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DPRINT, DMINT
AND ADT ESTIMATE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 45 KT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH OUR SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, WHICH ESTIMATES A T/CI OF 3.5-.
THE 45 KT VALUE IS THEREFORE ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WIND INTENSITY, AND
INDUSA REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN THE 12Z ANALYSIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD,
TRAPPED BETWEEN THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS LOW AND IS
RELATED TO THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 28AOC). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 73.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 73.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 14.0S 72.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 16.0S 71.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.5S 70.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 21.3S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 28.6S 70.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 35.3S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 40.1S 79.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 73.0E.
02APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1019 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 021500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR
   
4. 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.6S 73.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1019 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
    
19. DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) PROPAGATING
    
20. SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
21. SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE AN OTHERWISE OVERWHELMINGLY
    
22. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
    
23. EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OCEANIC HEAT
    
24. CONTENT IS HIGH, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BETWEEN 29 C
    
25. AND 30 C, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AT 5-10 KTS, AND A ROBUST
    
26. UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PERSISTS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
    
27. HOURS STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST CAN BE SEEN INDICATING THE
    
28. SYSTEM POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO ITS POTENTIAL AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
    
29. CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE
    
30. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, INFERRED FROM
    
31. THE CURVATURE OF THE SPIRAL BANDING IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    
32. IMAGERY AND CORROBORATED BY EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 021114Z F18 SSMIS
    
33. 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ALSO
    
34. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK AGENCY
    
35. FIXES, OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
    
36. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
41. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 021200Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 021116Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 021200Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
52.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS PROJECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS TRAJECTORY
    
66. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
    
67. TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY
    
68. FAVORABLE, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED, NEAR-RAPID
    
69. INTENSIFICATION, AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM MANAGES TO SHIELD ITS CORE
    
70. FROM ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. PEAK INTENSITY IS
    
71. ASSESSED AT 85 KTS TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48, JUST PRIOR TO A
    
72. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE.
    
73. FOLLOWING THE TURN, TC INDUSA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE TAIL
    
74. END OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM, INITIATING A WEAKENING TREND AND
    
75. THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
    
76. OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, CHARACTERIZED
    
77. BY CONTINUOUS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, SHARPLY
    
78. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A DECLINE IN SEA SURFACE
    
79. TEMPERATURES. PRIOR TO TAU 120, THE CIRCULATION FIELD IS EXPECTED
    
80. TO EXPAND AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC AS CORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. TC
    
81. 29S IS ANTICIPATED TO COMPLETE THE ETT SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 120, AS
    
82. IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER WESTERLIES.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES GOOD
    
85. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, EVIDENCED BY A TIGHT
    
86. INITIAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 50 NM
    
87. AT TAU 72, EXPANDING TO OVER 700 NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
88. PERIOD. THE LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS ATTRIBUTED
    
89. TO VARYING DEPICTION OF THE TIMELINE OF THE ETT BY THE AVAILABLE
    
90. GUIDANCE. WHILE THE INITIAL 72 HOURS FORECAST REMAINS REALLY GOOD,
    
91. THE LONG TERM TRACK OUTLIERS ARE UKMET DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
    
92. SHOWING A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WHILE NAVGEM PROJECT A MUCH
    
93. FASTER AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION. OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
94. LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS FAR AS INTENSITY
    
95. FORECAST, IT IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
    
96. ABOVE THE GUIDANCE MEAN, LEANING TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
    
97. INTENSIFICATION. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE MODELS CONCUR ON THE GENERAL
    
98. INTENSIFICATION AND DECAY TIMELINE, THE SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY IS
    
99. STILL SUBSTANTIAL, ESTIMATED AT 35 KTS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
    
100. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A PEAK OF ONLY 60-65 KTS, IN
     
101. STARK CONTRAST TO THE COAMPS-TC RI-AID, DTOP AND RIDE AIDS, WHICH
     
102. INDICATE A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 95-100 KTS. OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY
     
103. FORECASTS PEAK INTENSITY JUST 5-10 KTS LOWER THAN THE HAFS
     
104. PROJECTION, BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OVERALL CONSENSUS MEAN.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
111. NNNN

复制代码

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 021814
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 73.3 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 45 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/03 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/03 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 36.1 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 130 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 120


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN INDUSA HAS DECLINED AND
THE OUTER RAINBAND ON THE POLAR SIDE HAS SCATTERED SOMEWHAT. THE
SYSTEM STILL PRESENTS A EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN , WITH AN EMERGING
BUT IMPROVABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALONG THE POLAR AND EQUATORIAL
SIDES. THE 1546 UTC ASCAT-B DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RECENT
INTENSIFICATION BUT A SLIGHT WIDENING OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.
BASED ON THIS LATEST DATA, WE ESTIMATE THAT MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS
REMAIN CLOSE TO 45 KT, IN LINE WITH OUR LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, WHICH IS 3.5, BASED ON THE PT AND DT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW
AND MAINLY CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 28AOC). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 73.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 73.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 14.4S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 16.9S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.2S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 22.4S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 30.3S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 35.7S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 73.3E.
02APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 991 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 022100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR
   
4. 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.6S 73.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 335 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) RECOVERING FROM THE SLIGHT DRY AIR
    
19. ENTRAINMENT THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY STAGNATED ITS DEVELOPMENT. WHILE
    
20. DRIER AIR IS STILL PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK, INDUSA APPEARS
    
21. TO BE FIGHTING BACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED ALONG THE
    
22. NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS AND HAS STARTED TO WRAP INTO THE
    
23. EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
    
24. HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST,
    
25. CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH
    
26. (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ROBUST POLEWARD
    
27. OUTFLOW. A 021321Z RCM-2 SAR PASS AND A 021621Z METOP-C
    
28. SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALED THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
    
29. NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH
    
30. CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
    
31. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR AND SCATTEROMETER
    
32. IMAGES.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 021321Z RCM-2 SAR DATA SUPPORTED BY
    
35. 021621Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
38. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 011830Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 021830Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 021830Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 021700Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
51.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
    
65. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS ON
    
66. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AROUND TAU 48,
    
67. 29S WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE, INDUCING A
    
68. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
    
69. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, INDUSA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
    
70. UNTIL TAU 48, PEAKING AROUND THE SAME TIME IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
    
71. AT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KTS. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS, 29S WILL
    
72. ENTER INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, ENCOUNTERING
    
73. UNFAVORABLE VWS INDUCED BY JET INTERACTION AND DECREASING SSTS IN
    
74. AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT. 29S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
    
75. TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY
    
76. EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
79. AGREEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
    
80. OUTLIERS ARE GALWEM AND NAVGEM, WHICH DIVERGE FROM THE TIGHT
    
81. ENVELOPE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 72-96. DISCOUNTING GALWEM AND NAVGEM,
    
82. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 60NM AT TAU 96 AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
83. IS 30NM AT TAU 96, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
    
84. FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SUSTAINED
    
85. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, AND STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE
    
86. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PEAK
    
87. INTENSITY, THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE A PEAK OCCURRING AT TAU 48.
    
88. TWO JTWC RI AIDS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RI THROUGH TAU 48,
    
89. THOUGH MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE JTWC
    
90. INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES NEAR RI THROUGH TAU 48, IN CLOSE
    
91. ALIGNMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
    
92. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. NNNN

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