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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-4 12:00 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.1S 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.0S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.2S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.5S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.8S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.9S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.7S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 9.4S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 154.9E.
04APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 032230).//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 040300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY) WARNING NR
- 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 9.1S 155.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 717 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 30P WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
- A PARTIAL 032308Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 35 KNOT
- WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
- INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
- KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
- ASCAT PASS AND AN EARLY DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 33 KTS AT 040100Z.
- ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 30P IS CURRENTLY IN A
- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD AND
- EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 032308Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND A
- NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 040100Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
- COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 120-HOUR
- FORECAST, CAUSING IT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THE SOLOMON SEA.
- THE RIDGING TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
- TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
- CREATING VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS. THE ACTUAL TRACK DIRECTION OF 30P
- WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY ERRATIC DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING. A
- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
- SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE THE
- UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS BEGINS TO TAKE A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. AS
- A RESULT, 30P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120 AS
- IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN THE SOLOMON SEA.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
- A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, MODELS
- BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS, CREATING A HIGH AMOUNT
- OF UNCERTAINTY. IN LARGE, MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF PAPUA NEW
- GUINEA THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH AN EXACT
- DIRECTION IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
- BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
- TAU 72. HAFS-A AND HWRF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS, SUGGESTING
- A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 110 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- PLACED QUITE A BIT LOWER, WITH A PEAK OF 80 KTS, DUE TO THE
- EXPECTED UPWELLING EFFECTS ON THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS
- AGREE ON WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
- REGARDING HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT THE UPWELLING WILL HAVE ON THE
- SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR TRACK VARIATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-3 14:55
