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发表于 2026-4-9 17:24
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JTWC/04W/#02/04-09 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.1N 152.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 541 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE,
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND GOOD POLEWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, TD 04W IS SLOWLY TRAVERSING WESTWARD OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND HIGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A 090329Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AMIDST GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMBINATION OF THE BETA EFFECT AND AN
EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 28 KTS AT 090410Z
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 090540Z
CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 090540Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 090618Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 090710Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 04W IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR
LUZON. AFTER TAU 36, THE NER WILL BUILD AND INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
GUIDE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGH TAU 120. THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. TD
04W WILL ENCOUNTER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES: FROM THE EXTENSION
OF THE NER TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. A STRONGER NER WILL
PUSH THE SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD, WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A
MORE ZONAL TRACK. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS THE MORE ZONAL
FORECAST VICE THE STRONGLY POLEWARD TRAJECTORY AS DEPICTED IN SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. LOW VWS, PLENTIFUL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SST
WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST RATE OF DEEPENING INITIALLY
FOLLOWS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION.
MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TOWARDS A 115 KT PEAK IS THEN
FORECAST AS THE INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY TAU 48. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXTEND FAR OUT FROM THE
CENTER, MAKING FOR FAR-REACHING IMPACTS. THE FORECAST HOLDS THE
INTENSITY AT TAU 120 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
SLIGHTLY WORSE ENVIRONMENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST TRACK LARGELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE ECMWF AND THE
ECEPS MEAN. THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS, ALONG WITH THE GALWEM AND
UKMET SUGGEST A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, TRACKING EAST OF THE MARIANAS,
WHILE THE GFS FAVORS A MORE ZONAL MOTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH OUTLIERS SPREAD ACROSS OVER
1200 NM, BUT GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INCREASES TO 420 NM BY TAU 120. ALL
MODELS DEPICT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96, AFTER WHICH TIME A
COMBINATION OF LESS IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND INTERNAL STORM
DYNAMICS MAY CAP THE INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT ROUGHLY THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 120, THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A MODELS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
HAFS-A INTERPOLATION NOTABLY DEPICTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KTS WHEN
THE STORM WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO GUAM, HIGHLIGHTING THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 96.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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