雅浦岛以北2603号热带风暴“鹦鹉”(03W.Nuri) - 东北行进，将影响马里亚纳群岛

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 111517
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 11.01N
D. 138.20E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/30HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED UNDER OVERCAST LESS
THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   11/1141Z  10.72N  137.93E  MMHS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-3-11 20:41
SSD 12Z分析升回T2.5/2.5

SSD稍早前修改分析

TXPQ29 KNES 111545
TCSWNP
CCA
A.  03W (NURI)
B.  11/1130Z
C.  10.5N
D.  138.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AFTER MW REANALYSIS. CENTER LESS
THAN 0.5 DEG FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0 THE MET
EQUALS 3.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY DEVELOPING 24-HOUR TREND AND THE PT IS
2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DU TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z预报将逐渐减弱消散

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析DT2.5 MET1.5 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI2.5

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        69 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        2.06 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        -0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 111804
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 11.35N
D. 138.46E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT
YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T2.0/2.5

TXPQ29 KNES 111817
TCSWNP
A.  03W (NURI)
B.  11/1730Z
C.  10.8N
D.  138.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/MHS
H.  REMARKS...CENTER LOCATED <1/2 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A
DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT=2.0 FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    11/1218Z 10.5N 138.3E MHS
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 112123
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 11/2030Z
C. 10.37N
D. 137.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报将逐渐减弱消散

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析DT2 MET2 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI2.5

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        230 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        4.12 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        2
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        2
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        -0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        3
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2