关岛东南2604号台风“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，微波风眼构建，数值看好强度 - JMA:75KT JTWC:85KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.5

TPPN10 PGTW 101758
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 10/1730Z
C. 8.16N
D. 150.86E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   10/1534Z  7.85N  151.67E  ATMS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析升至T4.0

TXPQ22 KNES 101825
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  10/1730Z
C.  8.0N
D.  151.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...9/10W BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. CDO TOPS AS COLD AS
-95 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD ALQDS. MET AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET DUE
TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z升格TY

WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 2604 SINLAKU (2604) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN  101800UTC 08.0N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  065KT
GUST  095KT
50KT  50NM
30KT  270NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  111800UTC 09.4N 150.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE  NNW SLOWLY
PRES  950HPA
MXWD  080KT
GUST  115KT
48HF  121800UTC 11.4N 147.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE  NW 08KT
PRES  935HPA
MXWD  090KT
GUST  130KT
72HF  131800UTC 13.6N 144.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE  NW 10KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
96HF  141800UTC 15.2N 142.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE  NW 06KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
120HF 151800UTC 16.6N 141.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE  NW SLOWLY
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT =

Enceladus

按各家模式的预测结果来看，快速增强期可能是在12日，11日的高空环境似乎不支持高层风眼快速形成。

觀雲趣

流出良好 快速建立底層

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升至T4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 102104
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 7.99N
D. 151.40E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 28A/PBO LRG CDO/ANMTN. WELL-DEFINED CDO OF 105NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A CF OF 4.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 4.5.
MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   10/1534Z  7.85N  151.67E  ATMS
   LINDGREN

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GFS 18Z稍微西调，预报将在136E附近转向北上，巅峰约923百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析DT4.5 MET4 PT4.5 FT4.5 CI4.5

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        27 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        3.09 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        3
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        4.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        4.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        6
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        4
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        4.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        4.5
finalTNumberType:        1

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T4.5

TPPN10 PGTW 110017
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 8.59N
D. 151.70E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   10/1932Z  8.08N  151.40E  SSMS
   LINDGREN