雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

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JTWC 09Z分析降至T2.0/3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 080858
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 08/0830Z
C. 8.62N
D. 138.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0 DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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GFS 06Z临近调强，不过预报的是+3h达到约987百帕

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JMA 12Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 8.58N 139.02E
Motion: NW (306°), 4.12m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 1.5
MET: 1.5    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. DT

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JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0/3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 081157
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 08/1130Z
C. 8.68N
D. 138.35E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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SSD 12Z分析T2.0/2.5

TXPQ23 KNES 081222
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  08/1130Z
C.  8.7N
D.  138.4E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT
OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE 2.0 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

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ECMWF 06Z系集

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As of 8:00 PM today, 08 May 2026, Tropical Storm "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is still being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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JTWC 15Z分析T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 081448
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 08/1430Z
C. 8.56N
D. 137.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 5
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT
Issued at 11:00 PM, 08 May 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 AM tomorrow.
“HAGUPIT” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE SEA SOUTH OF YAP ISLANDS.
Location of Center (10:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm HAGUPIT was estimated based on all available data at 1,260 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (8.6°N, 137.8°E).
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa
Present Movement: Westward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• HAGUPIT is forecast to move west northwestward during the majority of the forecast period and will remain over the Philippine Sea, far from land. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (09 May) afternoon or evening however, an earlier PAR entry is not ruled out. Once HAGUPIT enters the PAR, it will be given the local name CALOY.
• In the next 12 hours, HAGUPIT may maintain its strength or briefly reach severe tropical storm category. However, it may begin weakening starting tomorrow (09 May) due to unfavorable environment. HAGUPIT will be downgraded into a tropical depression on Monday (11 May) and become a low-pressure area on Wednesday (13 May).
• HAGUPIT is less likely to directly affect the weather and sea conditions in the next 3 days.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA

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昨天晚间ASCAT风场扫描