2523号热带气旋“娜基莉”(29W.Nakri)机构发报专帖

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ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 131200
CCAA 13120 99398 11165
NAKRI 23340 11452 12324 240// 90821
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 131200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NAKRI 2523 (2523) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC
00HR 34.0N 145.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE E 41KM/H
P+12HR 34.6N 150.5E 980HPA 30M/S
P+24HR 34.9N 156.0E 982HPA 28M/S
P+36HR 34.9N 161.5E 990HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第23号(ナクリー)
2025年10月13日21時45分発表

13日21時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        関東の南東
中心位置        北緯34度00分 (34.0度)
東経145度10分 (145.2度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 150 km (80 NM)
北西側 95 km (50 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 330 km (180 NM)
北西側 280 km (150 NM)

14日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯34度35分 (34.6度)
東経150度30分 (150.5度)
進行方向、速さ        東 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 210 km (115 NM)
北西側 155 km (85 NM)

14日21時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯34度55分 (34.9度)
東経155度50分 (155.8度)
進行方向、速さ        東 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
最大風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速        45 m/s (85 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 240 km (130 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 131200
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2523 NAKRI (2523)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   TY NAKRI IS LOCATED AT 34.0N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
    
11.   THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    
12.   INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    
13.   ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    
16.   MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    
17.   ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
    
18.   MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
    
19.   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
    
20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
21.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
    
22.   PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
    
23.   GSM PREDICTIONS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
    
24.   MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    
25. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
26.   THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
    
27.   INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP
    
28.   AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    
29.   INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
    
30.   VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
    
31.   FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
    
32.   DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
33. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.23 NAKRI KMA | Issued at(KST) : Mon, 13 Oct 2025, 22:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Mon, 13 Oct 2025, 12:00 Analysis	Normal	2	32	115	975	34.1	145.4	E	40	250 [NW 150]	70 [NW 50]	-
Tue, 14 Oct 2025, 00:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	34.8	150.8	E	42	250 [NW 150]	70 [NW 40]	50
Tue, 14 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Normal	2	27	97	985	35.1	156.3	E	42	230 [NW 130]	60 [NW 30]	90
Wed, 15 Oct 2025, 00:00 Forecast	-	L	24	86	990	35.5	162.8	E	49			110

ygsj24

中度颱風娜克莉
編號第 23 號
國際命名 NAKRI

現況
2025年10月13日20時
中心位置在北緯 34.1 度，東經 145.4 度
過去移動方向 東北東
過去移動時速 42公里
中心氣壓 965百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 35 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 45 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 120 公里
　西北側 100 公里 東北側 120 公里
　西南側 120 公里 東南側 140 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 40 公里
　西北側 40 公里 東北側 40 公里
　西南側 40 公里 東南側 40 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 34 公里
預測 10月14日02時
中心位置在北緯 34.4 度，東經 147.6 度
中心氣壓965百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 35 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 45 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
十級風暴風半徑 40 公里
70%機率半徑 30 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 48 公里
預測 10月14日08時
中心位置在北緯 34.6 度，東經 150.7 度
中心氣壓970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
十級風暴風半徑 40 公里
70%機率半徑 60 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 41 公里
預測 10月14日14時
中心位置在北緯 34.7 度，東經 153.4 度
中心氣壓975百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 30 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 38 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
十級風暴風半徑 40 公里
70%機率半徑 70 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 43 公里
預測 10月14日20時
中心位置在北緯 34.9 度，東經 156.2 度
中心氣壓975百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 30 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 38 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
十級風暴風半徑 40 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 42 公里
預測 10月15日08時
中心位置在北緯 35.1 度，東經 161.7 度
中心氣壓965百帕
70%機率半徑 130 公里
預測 36 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

yhh

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 022   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 34.3N 145.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.3N 145.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 35.1N 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 35.7N 156.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 36.1N 162.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 36.6N 168.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 146.6E.
13OCT25. TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN

yhh

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.3N 145.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 255 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY OF TYPHOON (TY) 29W (NAKRI) AS EVIDENCED BY
FAIRLY STEADY CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES IN EIR IMAGERY. AS THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED. STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW NOW STANDS OUT AS THE PRIMARY EXHAUST MECHANISM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE
FOR TY NAKRI WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25 C TO 26 C),
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 131121Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER
DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 131121Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 131130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 131130Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 131330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 29W (NAKRI) WILL CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASINGLY DETERIORATE
WITH THE CIRCULATION ENCOUNTERING EVEN HIGHER WIND SHEAR (35-45
KTS) AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24 C TO 25 C), WHILE
CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE AROUND TAU 24. THOUGH
THE FORECASTED ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
COMPLETE THE ETT CYCLE SOON AFTER TAU 36, THE JTWC FORECAST
MAINTAINS THAT TY NAKRI WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AT OR PRIOR
TO TAU 48, AT AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 35 KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD UNDER 60 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS A 10 KNOT SPREAD WITH HAFS-A BEING A BIT RELUCTANT TO
BRING THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM DOWN. THE REMAINING MODELS AGREE
ON A STEEP WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24, AS THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WITHIN
5 KTS OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 131500
CCAA 13150 99398 11165
NAKRI 23342 11465 12314 240// 90823
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 131500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NAKRI 2523 (2523) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC
00HR 34.2N 146.5E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE E 42KM/H
P+12HR 34.7N 151.9E 980HPA 30M/S
P+24HR 35.0N 157.4E 985HPA 25M/S=
NNNN

yhh

台風第23号(ナクリー)
2025年10月14日00時45分発表

14日00時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本の東
中心位置        北緯34度20分 (34.3度)
東経146度40分 (146.7度)
進行方向、速さ        東 45 km/h (24 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 150 km (80 NM)
北西側 95 km (50 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 330 km (180 NM)
北西側 280 km (150 NM)

14日12時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯34度40分 (34.7度)
東経151度55分 (151.9度)
進行方向、速さ        東 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 210 km (115 NM)
北西側 155 km (85 NM)

15日00時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯35度00分 (35.0度)
東経157度10分 (157.2度)
進行方向、速さ        東 40 km/h (22 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
最大風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速        45 m/s (85 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 240 km (130 NM)