雅浦岛以北2603号热带风暴“鹦鹉”(03W.Nuri) - 东北行进，将影响马里亚纳群岛

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 120546
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 12/0530Z
C. 9.78N
D. 138.23E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST
GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS A 1.0. PT
YIELDS A 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析T2.0/2.0

TXPQ29 KNES 120603
TCSWNP
A.  03W (NURI)
B.  12/0530Z
C.  10.7N
D.  138.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5. MET=2.5 PT=2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE LLCC AND INCONSISTENT CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-3-12 08:28
CMA 00Z停编

环流中心不明显，是台风鹦鹉的硬伤

红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h维持TD，+48h消散

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z维持TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 11N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T1.5/1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 120848
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 12/0830Z
C. 9.84N
D. 138.81E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5 MET YIELDS
A 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报将逐渐减弱消散

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T1.0/2.0

TXPQ29 KNES 121216
TCSWNP
A.  03W (NURI)
B.  12/1130Z
C.  10.5N
D.  138.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI
H.  REMARKS...2.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. MET=1.5 DUE TO A 24 HR
WEAKENING TREND. PT=1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LLCC POSN AND IRREGULAR PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    12/0929Z 10.5N 138.1E GMI
...LEE

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.5/1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 121220
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI)
B. 12/1130Z
C. 9.21N
D. 138.31E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET & PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN