雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z整体与上一报相比变化不大

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 8.80N 137.34E
Motion: NW (278°), 8.74m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 2.0
MET: 2.0    W0.5/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. PT

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SSD 18Z分析升回T2.5/2.5

TXPQ23 KNES 081803
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  08/1730Z
C.  8.8N
D.  137.2E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/GMI
H.  REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVR LLCC LAST FEW HR. CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -89 C. MET=3.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO
IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    08/1634Z 8.7N 137.4E GMI
...KONON

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JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 081805
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 08/1730Z
C. 8.46N
D. 136.94E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED NEAR
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5.
PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1214Z  8.77N  137.88E  MMHS
   LINDGREN