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JTWC/05W/#18/07-08 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR
018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 122.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 170 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 080441Z AMSR2
37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
REVEAL CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
EASTERN QUADRANT, WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2
IMAGE, RADAR IMAGERY AND MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080149Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED BUT A 080700Z SHIP REPORT, APPROXIMATELY
100NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, INDICATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 26 KNOTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 080510Z
CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 080510Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 080520Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 081600Z-081700Z
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 45NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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