百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 08 月 20 日 18 时
“埃林”向北偏西方向移动

时        间:   20日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经73.2度，北纬28.3度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    954百帕

参考位置:    距离百慕大群岛西南方向约920公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”强度由16级减弱为14级

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月20日14时00分）

觀雲趣

今日下午的AMSR 89H

菜园子

00Z

ygsj24

327
WTNT35 KNHC 201153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN EXPECTED TO BRING
WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THIS EVENING...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 29.6 North,
longitude 73.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near
13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the north and north-northeast is
expected today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.  
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast of
Virginia on Thursday and on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

重新加强了，咋没人了
最新实测943

9916-Bart

觀雲趣 发表于 2025-8-20 18:23
今日下午的AMSR 89H

这个雨带套雨带套CDO还是太抽象了
外表宛若win7

9916-Bart

雨带居然刷出了FL上的C4风力
还是挺抽象

xzt123456789

短暂出现WMG

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 201457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center.  Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.  A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so
the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb.  The
hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features.  The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
  
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt.  There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package.  Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high.  Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming.  The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass.  Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours.  Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday.  Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.   

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.  

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 30.1N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 32.0N  73.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 34.4N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 36.6N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  23/0000Z 40.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 42.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 47.4N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 52.5N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

---

WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center.  Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.  A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds
so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb.  
The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features.  The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
  
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt.  There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package.  Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high.  Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming.  The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass.  Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours.  Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday.  Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.   

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.  

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 30.1N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 32.0N  73.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 34.4N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 36.6N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  23/0000Z 40.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 42.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 47.4N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 52.5N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

LsfyHarold

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