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楼主: 大水台6

[值得关注] 牙买加五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲,加海北上严重威胁牙买加,西半球最强登陆飓风之一 - NHC:160KT 892mb

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160

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1207

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强热带风暴

积分
1207
发表于 2025-10-28 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
Enceladus 发表于 2025-10-28 21:43
155对892吗,怎么感觉越来越奇葩了

標準換算0.9 round up成155KT
但初步研究有指小風眼邊界層強炸了這些的換算率較高,趨向1(即167FL變了160-165KT)
CKZ換算163-171KT, 平均167

点评

yep,感觉这个气压对上160+更make sense  发表于 2025-10-28 22:05

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论坛版主-副热带高压

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1354
发表于 2025-10-28 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
這個風暴風速不太行也不是很難理解,畢竟移動速度緩慢而且沒有強副高壓頂。

對比當年鮎魚颱風,同一個氣壓但飛行層面風速是192KT,風速還是受很多因素影響的。

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160

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1207

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强热带风暴

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1207
发表于 2025-10-28 21:51 | 显示全部楼层
然而,NOAA XTRP進一步下降至890mb, 是沒想過減弱就剷掉整個國家...
眼壁閃電這數小時更是沒停過 360度都在閃

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655

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2062

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强热带风暴

和风晓城

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2062
发表于 2025-10-28 21:55 | 显示全部楼层
强的可怕



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站外常用名:和风晓城

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台风

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2646
发表于 2025-10-28 21:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 觀雲趣 于 2025-10-28 22:17 编辑

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/
Mission Summary
Updated at 14:03z
Location: 16.97°N, 77.58°W
Altitude/Pressure: 3118.0m, 696.5mb
Type: Low-level • Mission Finished

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 173kt at 13:51z
Peak SFMR: N/A
Peak WL150/500 Wind (Reduced): 172.5kt (141.2kt) at 13:44z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 892.5mb at 13:45z
Minimum Estimated Dropsonde Pressure: 894.3mb at 13:46z


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论坛版主-副热带高压

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1354
发表于 2025-10-28 21:58 | 显示全部楼层
最新飛行層面風速實測173kt,個人認為可以評估160kt。

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1932

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分区版主-高空急流

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发表于 2025-10-28 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
MiniKathy4460 发表于 2025-10-28 21:50
標準換算0.9 round up成155KT
但初步研究有指小風眼邊界層強炸了這些的換算率較高,趨向1(即167FL變了16 ...

現在風眼並沒有之前的細,日出前進行了眼牆融合

當然現在FL 173節都很支持160節的
If necessary, for years, if necessary, alone.

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1万

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超强台风

Super Typhoon

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12148
发表于 2025-10-28 22:02 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT63 KNHC 281401
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE
COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious
injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the
eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase
within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

The next update will be provided with the full advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly
P

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1482

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强热带风暴

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1482
发表于 2025-10-28 22:03 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE
COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious
injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the
eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase
within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

The next update will be provided with the full advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly

----

給了160kts

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1431

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强热带风暴

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1431
发表于 2025-10-28 22:03 | 显示全部楼层
160/892。可能要加强到最后一刻 为牙买加祈祷
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