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[值得关注] 雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧,逐渐西行

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发表于 2026-5-9 09:12 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 00Z分析维持T2.5/2.5
TXPQ23 KNES 090023
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  08/2330Z
C.  8.9N
D.  136.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90 C. MET AND PT=2.5. FT BASED
ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    08/1849Z 8.8N 136.9E SSMIS
...KONON
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 09:38 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 18Z系集



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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 09:45 | 显示全部楼层
今天凌晨HY-2C及HY-2B风场扫描


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 10:02 | 显示全部楼层
As of 8:00 AM today, 09 May 2026, Tropical Storm "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is still being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 14:11 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 6
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT
Issued at 11:00 AM, 09 May 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 PM today.
“HAGUPIT” SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST OF PALAU.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm HAGUPIT was estimated based on all available data at 1,065 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (8.8°N, 136.0°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• HAGUPIT is forecast to move west northwestward during the majority of the forecast period and will remain over the Philippine Sea, far from the Philippine landmass. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today and will be given the local name CALOY.
• In the next 12 hours, HAGUPIT may maintain its strength as it continues to move over the Philippine Sea until it enters PAR. However, it may begin weakening starting tomorrow (10 May) due to unfavorable environment. HAGUPIT will become a tropical depression tomorrow and will further weaken into a low-pressure area on Monday (11 May).
• HAGUPIT is less likely to directly affect the weather and sea conditions in the next 48 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 14:13 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0/2.5
TPPN10 PGTW 090304
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 09/0230Z
C. 9.26N
D. 135.87E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/2213Z  8.80N  136.13E  SSMS
   LINDGREN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 14:14 | 显示全部楼层
今天早晨ASCAT风场成功扫中中心


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 14:18 | 显示全部楼层
HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图(2026年5月9日更新)


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 14:55 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 00Z整体与上一报相比变化不大




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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-9 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
JMA 06Z分析
- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 9.22N 135.88E
Motion: NW (286°), 3.60m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 1.5
MET: 1.5    W1.0/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. DT
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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