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JTWC/05W/#19/07-08 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 121.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 081304Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, RCTP AND DEMS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 081130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 081130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080704Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 081230Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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