帕劳西北2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

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GFS 06Z预报将在菲东回旋后再转为西行，但强度较弱

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JMA 12Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 9.50N 135.18E
Motion: NW (292°), 3.60m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 2.0
MET: 2.0    S0.0/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. DT

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JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091155
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 09/1130Z
C. 9.50N
D. 134.44E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

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SSD 12Z分析维持T2.5/2.5

TXPQ23 KNES 091215
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  09/1130Z
C.  9.8N
D.  134.7E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CENTER LOCATED 1/3 DEG INTO DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE
MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A SLOWLY DEVELOPING 24 HR TREND AND THE PT AGREES. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS

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今天下午HY-2B及HY-2C风场扫描

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JTWC 12Z降格TD

05W HAGUPIT 260509 1200 9.3N 134.4E WPAC 30 1004

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ECMWF 06Z系集

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As of 8:00 PM today, 09 May 2026, Tropical Storm "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA 05c) is being monitored inside the monitoring domain of PAGASA (TCID) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描显示东侧最大风力约30kt，与今天早晨相比明显减弱

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JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091454
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 09/1430Z
C. 9.85N
D. 134.48E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON