牙买加五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，加海北上严重威胁牙买加，西半球最强登陆飓风之一 - NHC:160KT 892mb

薛总司令

牙买加恐面临巨灾

327

薛总司令 发表于 2025-10-28 23:43
看有无机会持平多里安成为北大并列登陆强度第一的TC

Dorian NHC现在承认的FL和WL150不如这个（虽然风速是高度主观的），气压更不如。此外，你还忘记了劳动节。

pocketbox

WTNT63 KNHC 281701
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly

恒信金仁

感觉要正北通过蒙贝城

Ragasa

WTNT33 KNHC 281753
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA CROSSING WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB...26.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter.  In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
over western Jamaica near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 78.0 West.
Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
will cross western Jamaica during the next few hours and then move
back into the Caribbean Sea.  After that, the center is expected to
move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move
across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued weakening is expected while the
center is over Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach
southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it
will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the
southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 899 mb (26.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa.  Total structural failure
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.  Do not venture out
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the
eyewall.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
during the next few hours, with hurricane conditions expected in
the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with
localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through
Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.
Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today
and continue into Wednesday.  Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and
Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected.  Heavy rain
may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach
9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Ragasa

WTNT63 KNHC 281900
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
300 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN
JAMAICA...
...REMAIN SHELTERED IN YOUR SAFE PLACE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly
increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should not leave
their shelter and should remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 77.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.75 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly
  

Ragasa

MiniKathy4460 发表于 2025-10-28 22:53
對流太強根本飛不了第二次眼壁
飛機和人都頂不了（最大正負G為[+3.79, -2.54], 而極限為[+3, -2]） ...

https://x.com/53rdWRS/status/1983192472764461336

执勤任务的53rd WRS表示因强烈气流受到异常G力而返航，须检查飞机是否受损

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282052
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.

The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.

While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba.  After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will
continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash
flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight
with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In
Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.
Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane
Watch is now in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 18.5N  77.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 19.9N  76.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 22.2N  75.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 28.9N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  31/0600Z 33.8N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  31/1800Z 39.0N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  01/1800Z 48.4N  42.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 54.8N  25.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

VistaBSOD

我们晕了并拨打120，确诊为追风气的
怎么西太变成了这个鬼样子

恒信金仁

牙买加吃160 古巴东部吃80。感谢牙买加老铁的一刀