帕劳西北2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 091200
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 01
ISSUED AT 1200UTC, 09 MAY 2026 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2605) 1002HPA
AT 1200UTC, PSTN 09.3N 134.5E MOV WNW 10KT
MXWD 35KT NEAR CTR
34KT 40NM NE 40NM SE QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 100000UTC
PSTN 09.8N 133.0E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT

24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 101200UTC
PSTN 10.2N 131.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 110000UTC
PSTN 10.7N 130.1E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 111200UTC
PSTN 11.2N 128.9E, PRES 1008HPA, MWXD LO

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 09.3N 134.5E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 091800UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z继续预报将在菲东回旋后再转为西行，但强度较弱

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 9.88N 134.92E
Motion: NW (326°), 2.57m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 2.0
MET: 2.0    S0.0/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. DT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091803
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 9.82N
D. 134.16E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T2.5/2.5

TXPQ23 KNES 091931
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  09/1730Z
C.  9.9N
D.  134.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN
A DT OF 3.5. DISTINCT MID-LVL CENTER WELL E OF LLCC APPARENT. CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C. MET=3.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h降格TD，+48h维持TD

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

As of 2:00 AM today, 10 May 2026, Tropical Storm "CALOY" (Int'l name "HAGUPIT") is being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA 05c) is being monitored inside the monitoring domain of PAGASA (TCID) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报将在菲东回旋后再转为西行，但强度较弱

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析

- Hagupit (2605) -
Position: 10.25N 134.13E
Motion: NW (296°), 4.63m/s
DT: 2.0       PT: 2.0
MET: 2.0    S0.0/24HRS
CI: 2.5        FT: 2.0 b.o. DT