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[值得关注] 帕劳西北2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧,逐渐西行

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发表于 2026-5-10 09:20 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 00Z分析T1.5/2.0
TPPN10 PGTW 100012
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 10.24N
D. 133.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 09:20 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 00Z分析维持T2.5/2.5
TXPQ23 KNES 100027
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  09/2330Z
C.  10.5N
D.  133.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    09/2330Z 10.3N 133.5E SSMIS
...KONON
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 09:36 | 显示全部楼层
今天凌晨HY-2C及HY-2B风场扫描


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 10:23 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 18Z系集



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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 10:31 | 显示全部楼层
WTPH20 RPMM 091800
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 02
ISSUED AT 1800UTC, 09 MAY 2026 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (2605) 1002HPA
AT 1800UTC, PSTN 09.8N 134.0E MOV WNW 10KT
MXWD 35KT NEAR CTR
34KT 40NM NE 40NM SE QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 100600UTC
PSTN 10.5N 132.5E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 101800UTC
PSTN 11.2N 130.8E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 110600UTC
PSTN 11.8N 129.5E, PRES 1008HPA, LOW

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 09.8N 134.0E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 100000UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2
Tropical Storm #CaloyPH (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 10 May 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TROPICAL STORM CALOY SLIGHTLY DECELERATES
WHILE MOVING OVER THE SEA EAST OF NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Storm CALOY was estimated based on all available data at 910 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (9.9°N, 133.8°E).
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward at 15 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
CALOY is unlikely to directly affect the country throughout the forecast period.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboards of Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands; the seaboards of Batanes; the western seaboard of Babuyan Islands; the northwestern seaboard of Ilocos Norte.
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Babuyan Islands; the eastern seaboards of Cagayan, Isabela, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar.
• Mariners of montorbancas and similarly vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm CALOY will continue moving west northwestward throughout the forecast period and will remain over the Philippine Sea, far from the Philippine landmass.
• Weakening trend will likely begin this afternoon or evening. It is forecast to be downgraded into a tropical depression between this afternoon and evening and further weakening into a remnant low tomorrow (11 May).
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
熱帶風暴黑格比

於08時,熱帶風暴黑格比正集結在澳門東南偏東約2500公里處 ﹝約北緯 10.2 度,東經 133.5 度﹞,以時速約12公里向西北方向移動,大致趨向菲律賓以東海域。


熱帶氣旋預測位置

澳門時間
北緯(度)
東經(度)
強度
11/05/2026 08:00
11.3
130.7
熱帶低氣壓
12/05/2026 08:00
12.2
129.0
熱帶低氣壓

熱帶氣旋過去位置及強度

澳門時間
北緯(度)
東經(度)
強度
中心氣壓(百帕斯卡)
中心最高風速(公里/每小時)
10/05/2026 08:00
10.2
133.5
熱帶風暴
998
65

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
As of 8:00 AM today, 10 May 2026, "CALOY" {Int'l name "HAGUPIT"} has weakened into a Tropical Depression and is being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA 05c) is being monitored inside the monitoring domain of PAGASA (TCID) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2026-5-10 11:03 | 显示全部楼层
今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。

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超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
16723
发表于 2026-5-10 11:30 | 显示全部楼层

WTPH20 RPMM 100000
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 03
ISSUED AT 0000UTC, 10 MAY 2026 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAGUPIT (2605) 1004HPA
AT 0000UTC, PSTN 10.3N 133.3E MOV WNW 10KT
MXWD 30KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 101200UTC
PSTN 10.9N 131.5E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 110000UTC
PSTN 11.4N 130.3E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 111200UTC
PSTN 12.1N 129.0E, PRES 1008HPA, LOW

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 10.3N 133.3E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 100600UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

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发表于 2026-5-10 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 03Z分析T1.5/1.5
TPPN10 PGTW 100254
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 10.05N
D. 132.39E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   09/2101Z  10.40N  133.07E  SSMS
   LINDGREN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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