牙买加五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，加海北上严重威胁牙买加，西半球最强登陆飓风之一 - NHC:160KT 892mb

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Global Disaster Weather Monitoring and Forecast News
Producer：Zhou Ningfang, Kong Linghan, Lv Xinyan  Liu Xiaobo  Checker：Dai Kan  2025 年 10 月 29 日 11 时
Hurricane "Melissa" will Seriously Impact Cuba

Hurricane "Melissa" in the North Atlantic made landfall near the southwest coast of Jamaica around 01:00 BJT this morning, with maximum sustained winds near its center exceeding 17 levels (82 meters per second), equivalent to a super typhoon in China. As of 08:00 BJT this morning, the center was located 510 kilometers west of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It is expected that "Melissa" will move rapidly northeastward at a speed of approximately 20 kilometers per hour and make a second landfall along the southeastern coast of Cuba around noon on the 29th (with maximum sustained winds near its center of 55-58 meters per second, a Category 3 hurricane, equivalent to a super typhoon in China), after which its intensity will gradually weaken (Figure 1).

Affected by this system, from the 29th to the 30th, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic will continue to experience light to moderate rain, with localized heavy rain. Eastern Cuba will see heavy to intense rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. Accumulated precipitation is expected to range from 80 to 200 mm, with areas along the southeastern coast and in Granma Province exceeding 300 mm. Eastern Cuba will also be subjected to winds of 10 to 15 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts potentially reaching above 16 (Figure 2). Attention should be given to the adverse impacts of the strong winds and rain on local power facilities, transportation, and other sectors, as well as to the prevention of secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, and mudslides that may be triggered by the intense rainfall.



Figure 1: 60-Hour Forecast Track for Hurricane "Melissa"



Figure 2: 925 hPa Wind Field and Rainfall Over the Past 12 Hours (Units: mm) at 20:00 (BJT) on October 29

Author: Zhou Ningfang, Kong Linghan, Lv Xinyan                                 Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo
English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 290852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Radar data and satellite images indicate that Melissa made landfall
in the province of Santiago de Cuba to the east of Chivirico around
0710 UTC this morning. The estimated landfall intensity of 105 kt
was based on a blend of the earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind
and pressure data with the available satellite intensity estimates.
The hurricane is now centered inland over eastern Cuba, where
damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue across the region. Outer
rainbands are also noted across Haiti and portions of the Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos. Land interaction with the rugged terrain of
eastern Cuba has likely caused some weakening over the past couple
of hours, so the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.

The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow
between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this
morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward
during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the
hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas
later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the
center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable
changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There
was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the
official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends.

Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across
eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over
the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters,
and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce
further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this
week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite
imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and
becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday.
No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction,
which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of
communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected
through this morning.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning.
Remain in a safe shelter.

4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe
shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 20.3N  76.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 21.9N  75.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 29.0N  69.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  31/0600Z 34.2N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  31/1800Z 40.3N  58.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  01/0600Z 46.3N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  02/0600Z 53.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0600Z 58.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、张增海  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 10 月 29 日 18 时
“梅利莎”向东北方向移动

时        间:     29日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬19.7度，西经76.4度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    16级，54米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    955百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港偏西北方向约450公里

变化过程:  过去24小时“梅利莎”强度由17级以上减弱为16级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月29日14时00分）

“索尼娅”向偏西方向移动

时        间:     29日14时

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬15.3度，西经125.6度

强度等级:    热带低压

最大风力:    7级，15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级

中心气压:    1007百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1640公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“索尼娅”强度从8级减弱为7级

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时18公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度继续减弱，这是关于“索尼娅”的最后一期监测公报



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月29日14时00分）

“蒙萨”已减弱为深低压

北印度洋气旋风暴“蒙萨”（MONTHA）已在印度安得拉邦境内减弱为深低压，强度还将继续减弱，目前已很难确定其环流中心，中央气象台29日14时对其停止监视和预报，这是关于“蒙萨”的最后一期监测公报。

Tanky22

值得一提的是 该飓风让飞行员险些遭遇三次mayday险情 一次撞鸟 两次严重颠簸提前结束实测 其中最后一次颠簸发生在air force的主颠实测 产生了 +3.8/-2.5g的恐怖过载 AF提前返航检查后 NOAA调整至700mb 测出 FL 173
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